For the NBA prop bets, April Fools came one day early for my selections. Maybe it was getting a little too confident in taking five instead of the four as I had all season, but it happens.
Nevertheless, we still are quite profitable at 60 percent over our last 40 attempts versus the NBA odds for prop wagers and we will seek to rebound immediately today.
For NBA picks on props, these are the four we like best.
Mavericks vs. Pistons - First Team to Score 20 Points
All season, Detroit has been one of the best home teams both for just winning games and against the spread. The Pistons are 25-13 and 23-13-2 ATS and are fighting to hold on to playoff berth. Similar to Toronto, why Detroit has been so successful is they are prepared to play mentally and put the pressure on opposing teams from the start. Though we are going to have to cough up extra juice for the prop, with how the Pistons are synced up at home, I will pay the -170 and presume they build a fast 20-14 lead on Dallas.
Prop Play - Pistons First Team to Score 20 Points
Mavericks vs. Pistons -Detroit Over /Under 105.5 Points (-115)
In a related aspect, Detroit is 20-6 SU at home as a favorite. The Pistons are clicking with a 17-8-1 OVER record and are averaging 107.1 points a game in this role. At last look they were a -5.5 point favorite over Dallas and I think they can cover this total. It starts with Detroit has shot under 39 percent in their past two games, both at home, thus, they are due to at least reach normal shooting numbers like 44%, if not surpass them. Also, in spite of the Mavericks holding past two teams to 88 and 89 points, over their last seven, they have conceded 113.8 PPG, which sure appears as a window of opportunity for the Pistons. Finally, they are 17-5 OVER at home versus teams averaging 83 or more shots a game this season, scoring 109.3 PPG on average.
Prop Play - Play Pistons Over 105.5 Points
Raptors vs. Grizzlies - Toronto Over/Under 50.5 Points for 1st Half (-115)
Toronto's play of late has been a little spotty, which is to be expected after remarkable run. One has to think they would want to take advantage of beatable and injured opponent, knowing they are at San Antonio tomorrow. I think this will be the case for the Raptors and they have shown a proclivity to scoring more points early against the right numbers and are 19-8 OVER versus the first half total in a road game when the total is 98 to 100.5 the last three seasons.Our latest peek had most sportsbooks at 99 points, giving us the needed confidence for this play.
Prop Plays - Raptors Over 50.5 Points for 1st Half
T-Wolves vs. Jazz - G. Heyward Over/Under 26 for Points-Rebounds-Assists (-120)
While we are big fans of Gordon Heyward, you have to go where the numbers take you for this prop wager. Heyward has been in a little shooting slump, connecting on 39.5% in last 10 contests, compared to 42.9% for the season. In this same period, if you look at these three areas with how this prop is designed, the former Butler star is at 24.4 combined. With a total of only 194 points and Heyward at only 22.7 in three prior matchups with Minnesota, have to believe the UNDER is the right play here.
Prop Play - G. Heyward Under 26 for Points-Rebounds-Assists (-110)