Let it not be said I did not warn you about the ups and downs of making NBA prop bets. After a super run, we have gone backwards the last couple days and are on a mission to regroup.
Given this selection of NBA odds for prop wagers, not the easiest collection to find great value, but maybe we start to go back up the hill after a couple of desultory days.
For NBA picks on props, these are the four we like best.
Pacers vs. 76ers - Philadelphia Over/Under 96.5 Total Points (-110)
The Philadelphia 76ers feel like they have been rebuilding for a decade and have gotten absolutely nowhere. The Sixers are last in the NBA in scoring at 96.9 points a game and in their past six outings, they have been even a little worse at 94 PPG. The fact of the matter is they are just not very accurate, and have connected on less than 40 percent in four of the last seven contests. Consider the UNDER today as home teams when the total is 200 to 209.5, after three straight games being outrebounded by opponent by five or more, are 19-5 UNDER the last three seasons, averaging 94.3 PPG.
Prop Play - Play 76ers Under 96.5
Heat vs. Trail Blazers -Portland to Cover 1.5 Points for 1st Quarter (-115)
With Dwyane Wade doubtful to play after missing Friday's game at Sacramento, this is an excellent opportunity for Portland to jump on Miami right from the start. After some real middling play, the Trail Blazers are 3-0 on the homestand and catch Miami having played last night and in their third game in four days. No Wade also creates more space and opportunity for the Portland guards Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum. With this short a number, expect the Blazers to blaze a trail in the opening 12 minutes of action.
Prop Play - Play Trail Blazers -1.5 for 1st Quarter
Kings vs. Nuggets - Denver to Cover -5.5 for 1st Half (-115)
When I first saw this number it was like "Wow", this is pretty big. I immediately deducted DeMarcus Cousins was out, then when I started looking around, I also found Rajon Rondo will be joining him on the bench. This became much more palatable play to back Denver. The truth is this is not so much a play on the Nuggets, but rather against the Kings, who are 2-10 ATS against the first half line after two straight games giving up 10 or less offensive rebounds and are 11-27 ATS at halftime off a home cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog.
Prop Plays - Play Nuggets -5.5 for First Half
Raptors vs. Spurs - D. DeRozan Over/Under 31.5 for Points-Rebounds-Assists (-120)
If their one attribute DeMar DeRozan has for Toronto, he is consistent. You follow his scoring, rebounding and dimes and the variation is quite small, considering he is the Raptors leading scorer. For the season, DeRozan is at 32.1 when adding this trio of numbers together. With this not your average opponent for Toronto in playing San Antonio, one would surmise the motivation would be a little higher, which is why for my money on this prop, it looks like an OVER for this former USC player.
Prop Play - D. DeRozan Over 31.5 for Points-Rebounds-Assists (-110)