Projections Site Gives Raptors 63 Percent Chance to Win NBA Finals After Game 1

Friday, May 31, 2019 3:55 PM UTC

Friday, May. 31, 2019 3:55 PM UTC

According to the data and projections of one site, the Raptors have a 63 percent chance to win the NBA Finals after Thursday's 118-109 win in Game 1.

<div><p>Popular data-driven news and analysis site FiveThirtyEight updated the chances of winning the NBA Finals and their projection is surprising.</p><p>FiveThirtyEight currently gives the Raptors a 63 percent chance to win the NBA Finals, based on the outlook of their CARMELO projection system.</p><p>Chance of winning the NBA Finals:</p><p>Toronto Raptors: 63 percent chance</p><p>Golden State Warriors: 37 percent chance</p><p>According to FiveThirtyEight, the Career-Arc Regression Model Estimator with Local Optimization (CARMELO) forecasts <em>"are based on 50,000 simulations of the rest of the season. Our CARMELO forecast doesn't account for wins and losses; it is based entirely on our CARMELO player projections, which estimate each player's future performance based on the trajectory of similar NBA players."</em></p><p>They also explain that their CARMELO player projections are <em>"combined with up-to-date depth charts — tracking injuries, trades and other player transactions — to generate talent estimates for each team."</em></p><p>The current CARMELO projection for the NBA Finals reflects any injuries and rest days in effect at the moment of the team's next game.</p><p>FiveThirtyEight's Elo forecast (a simple system that judges teams or players based on head-to-head results) currently has the Raptors with a 62 percent chance to win the NBA Finals.</p><p>Chance of winning the NBA Finals:</p><p>Toronto Raptors: 62 percent chance</p><p>Golden State Warriors: 38 percent chance</p><div>[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;🔥 &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/pskills43?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;@pskills43&lt;/a&gt; (32 PTS, 14-17 FGM) makes 11 CONSECUTIVE field goals, lifting the &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/Raptors?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;@Raptors&lt;/a&gt; over GSW in Game 1 of the &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBAFinals?src=hash&amp;amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;#NBAFinals&lt;/a&gt; presented by &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/YouTubeTV?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;@YouTubeTV&lt;/a&gt;! &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/hashtag/WeTheNorth?src=hash&amp;amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;#WeTheNorth&lt;/a&gt; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Game 2: Sunday (6/2), 8:00pm/et, ABC &amp;amp; TSN &lt;a href=\"https://t.co/V2L6xXaRAa\"&gt;pic.twitter.com/V2L6xXaRAa&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;— NBA (@NBA) &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/NBA/status/1134434385707622401?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;May 31, 2019&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt; &lt;script async src=\"https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;"}[/]</div><div> </div><p>Although FiveThirtyEight's CARMELO projection and Elo forecast favor the Raptors in the NBA Finals, the same can't be said for oddsmakers. BetOnline has the Warriors as -151 favorites to win the series while the Raptors are at +131.</p><p>The <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/best-sportsbooks/" target="_blank">sportsbooks </a>monitored by <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/nba-basketball/" target="_blank">SBR Odds</a> favor the Raptors by two points for <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/nba-basketball/golden-state-warriors-vs-toronto-raptors-3806670/odds/" target="_blank">Game 2</a> of the <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nba-basketball-betting/" target="_blank">NBA Finals</a> and the total has been set at 215.</p><p><strong><u>Series Price for the NBA Finals<br />(Courtesy of <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=4423&amp;book=BetOnline" target="_blank">BetOnline</a>)</u></strong></p><p>Warriors -151</p><p>Raptors +131</p><p><strong><u>Series Price Before Game 1</u></strong></p><p>Warriors -290</p><p>Raptors +245</p><p><strong><u>2019 NBA Finals Schedule<br />(Courtesy of Sports Media Watch)</u></strong></p><p>Game 1: Raptors won 118-109</p><p>Game 2: Golden State Warriors at Toronto Raptors, Sunday, June 2 at 8:00 PM ET</p><p>Game 3: Toronto Raptors at Golden State Warriors, Wednesday, June 5 at 9:00 PM ET</p><p>Game 4: Toronto Raptors at Golden State Warriors, Friday, June 7 at 9:00 PM ET</p><p>Game 5: Golden State Warriors at Toronto Raptors, Monday, June 10 at 9:00 PM ET (If necessary)</p><p>Game 6: Toronto Raptors at Golden State Warriors, Thursday, June 13 at 9:00 PM ET (If necessary)</p><p>Game 7: Golden State Warriors at Toronto Raptors, Sunday, June 16 at 8:00 PM ET (If necessary)</p></div>
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