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Projections Site Gives Raptors 63 Percent Chance to Win NBA Finals After Game 1

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Popular data-driven news and analysis site FiveThirtyEight updated the chances of winning the NBA Finals and their projection is surprising.

FiveThirtyEight currently gives the Raptors a 63 percent chance to win the NBA Finals, based on the outlook of their CARMELO projection system.

Chance of winning the NBA Finals:

Toronto Raptors: 63 percent chance

Golden State Warriors: 37 percent chance

According to FiveThirtyEight, the Career-Arc Regression Model Estimator with Local Optimization (CARMELO) forecasts “are based on 50,000 simulations of the rest of the season. Our CARMELO forecast doesn’t account for wins and losses; it is based entirely on our CARMELO player projections, which estimate each player’s future performance based on the trajectory of similar NBA players.”

They also explain that their CARMELO player projections are “combined with up-to-date depth charts – tracking injuries, trades and other player transactions – to generate talent estimates for each team.”

The current CARMELO projection for the NBA Finals reflects any injuries and rest days in effect at the moment of the team’s next game.

FiveThirtyEight’s Elo forecast (a simple system that judges teams or players based on head-to-head results) currently has the Raptors with a 62 percent chance to win the NBA Finals.

Chance of winning the NBA Finals:

Toronto Raptors: 62 percent chance

Golden State Warriors: 38 percent chance

Although FiveThirtyEight’s CARMELO projection and Elo forecast favor the Raptors in the NBA Finals, the same can’t be said for oddsmakers. BetOnline has the Warriors as -151 favorites to win the series while the Raptors are at +131.

The sportsbooks monitored by SBR Odds favor the Raptors by two points for Game 2 of the NBA Finals and the total has been set at 215.

Series Price for the NBA Finals
(Courtesy of BetOnline)

Warriors -151

Raptors +131

Series Price Before Game 1

Warriors -290

Raptors +245

2019 NBA Finals Schedule
(Courtesy of Sports Media Watch)

Game 1: Raptors won 118-109

Game 2: Golden State Warriors at Toronto Raptors, Sunday, June 2 at 8:00 PM ET

Game 3: Toronto Raptors at Golden State Warriors, Wednesday, June 5 at 9:00 PM ET

Game 4: Toronto Raptors at Golden State Warriors, Friday, June 7 at 9:00 PM ET

Game 5: Golden State Warriors at Toronto Raptors, Monday, June 10 at 9:00 PM ET (If necessary)

Game 6: Toronto Raptors at Golden State Warriors, Thursday, June 13 at 9:00 PM ET (If necessary)

Game 7: Golden State Warriors at Toronto Raptors, Sunday, June 16 at 8:00 PM ET (If necessary)