Projections Site Favors Raptors to Win NBA Finals

Monday, May 27, 2019 6:48 PM UTC

Monday, May. 27, 2019 6:48 PM UTC

According to the data and projections of one site, the Warriors are somehow not favored to win the NBA Finals.
<div><p>Popular data-driven news and analysis site FiveThirtyEight updated the chances the Raptors and Warriors have of winning the NBA Finals and their projection is surprising.</p><p>FiveThirtyEight currently gives the Raptors a 57 percent chance to win the NBA Finals, based on the outlook of their CARMELO projection system.</p><p>Chance of winning the NBA Finals:</p><p>Toronto Raptors: 57 percent chance</p><p>Golden State Warriors: 43 percent chance</p><p>According to FiveThirtyEight, the Career-Arc Regression Model Estimator with Local Optimization (CARMELO) forecasts <em>"are based on 50,000 simulations of the rest of the season. Our CARMELO forecast doesn't account for wins and losses; it is based entirely on our CARMELO player projections, which estimate each player's future performance based on the trajectory of similar NBA players."</em></p><p>They also explain that their CARMELO player projections are <em>"combined with up-to-date depth charts — tracking injuries, trades and other player transactions — to generate talent estimates for each team."</em></p><p>The current CARMELO projection for the NBA Finals reflects any injuries and rest days in effect at the moment of the team's next game.</p><p>FiveThirtyEight's Elo forecast (a simple system that judges teams or players based on head-to-head results) currently has the Warriors with a 51 percent chance to win the NBA Finals.</p><p>Chance of winning the NBA Finals:</p><p>Golden State Warriors: 51 percent chance</p><p>Toronto Raptors: 49 percent chance</p><p>Kevin Durant and DeMarcus Cousins are <a href="" target="_blank">not expected to be ready</a> for <a href="" target="_blank">Game 1</a> of the NBA Finals and Kawhi Leonard and the Raptors will have home court advantage and are playing on another level but the Warriors looked incredibly impressive in their last six games.</p><div>[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;Kawhi Leonard's BEST PLAYS of the 2018-19 NBA Regular Season &amp;amp; &lt;a href=\";amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;#NBAPlayoffs&lt;/a&gt; before Game 1 of &lt;a href=\";amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;#NBAFinals&lt;/a&gt; presented by &lt;a href=\"\"&gt;@YouTubeTV&lt;/a&gt; tips Thursday (5/30)! &lt;a href=\";amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;#WeTheNorth&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;🚨: GSW / TOR, Game 1&lt;br /&gt;⏰: 9pm/et 📺: ABC &lt;a href=\"\"&gt;;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;— NBA (@NBA) &lt;a href=\"\"&gt;May 27, 2019&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt; &lt;script async src=\"\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;"}[/]</div><div> </div><p>Although FiveThirtyEight's CARMELO projection favors the Raptors in the NBA Finals, the same can't be said for oddsmakers. <a href=";a=f3f21e61-d9f3-4f0e-b0e8-170a0846bc18&amp;f=3" target="_blank">BetOnline</a> has the Warriors as -280 favorites to win the series while the Raptors are at +235.</p><p>The <a href="" target="_blank">sportsbooks </a>monitored by <a href="" target="_blank">SBR Odds</a> favor the Raptors by 1 point for Game 1 of the <a href="" target="_blank">NBA Finals</a> and the total has been set between 214.5 and 215.</p><p><u><strong>Series Price for the NBA Finals<br />(Courtesy of BetOnline)</strong></u></p><p>Warriors -280</p><p>Raptors +235</p><p><strong><u>2019 NBA Finals Schedule<br />(Courtesy of Sports Media Watch. These are subject to change)</u></strong></p><p>Game 1: Golden State Warriors at Toronto Raptors, Thursday, May 30 at 9:00 PM ET</p><p>Game 2: Golden State Warriors at Toronto Raptors, Sunday, June 2 at 8:00 PM ET</p><p>Game 3: Toronto Raptors at Golden State Warriors, Wednesday, June 5 at 9:00 PM ET</p><p>Game 4: Toronto Raptors at Golden State Warriors, Friday, June 7 at 9:00 PM ET</p><p>Game 5: Golden State Warriors at Toronto Raptors, Monday, June 10 at 9:00 PM ET (If necessary)</p><p>Game 6: Toronto Raptors at Golden State Warriors, Thursday, June 13 at 9:00 PM ET (If necessary)</p><p>Game 7: Golden State Warriors at Toronto Raptors, Sunday, June 16 at 8:00 PM ET (If necessary)</p></div>
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