Profitable NBA Odds On Total Worth Grabbing In Nuggets vs. Knicks

Jordan Sharp

Tuesday, March 8, 2016 4:43 PM GMT

Tuesday, Mar. 8, 2016 4:43 PM GMT

The Knicks have been falling off a cliff in the NBA Eastern Conference standings. Can they best the Nuggets on the road tonight at the Pepsi Center? See my NBA pick here. 

Knicks Road Struggles
While the Knicks have been struggling recently, their road struggles have been even more severe. The Knicks come into tonight losers of eight of their last nine road games, and while their rookie phenom, Kristaps Porzingis will likely be back tonight to help with that, the Knicks’ defense on the road has been suspect. In those nine road games, the Knicks are giving up an average of 105 points per game, and going into the Pepsi Center tonight where the altitude almost always plays a factor is cause for concern tonight.

However, while I am tempted to fade the Knicks against the NBA odds boards, who have gone 7-10 ATS in their last 17 games, they have been better recently ATS, winning four of their last six games against the number. Instead, the total seems like a better wager in this one, and if the sharps that are moving this line up are correct, this game could be very high scoring.

Not only have the Knicks been pretty bad defensively on the road, the Nuggets have near stellar offensively over their last three games, Granted, their last two games have gone into overtime, but in those last three the Nuggets are averaging scoring 118 points per game. The total has gone over in all three of those games, and while the Knicks play at one of the slower paces of any team this season, they also tend to play up or down in pace according to their competition. If the Nuggets want to take advantage of the Knicks tonight in the altitude, they will speed up this game as much as possible to tire out New York and to keep putting points on the board.

 

The Sharp Pick
The Nuggets come into this one cashing the over in seven of their last nine overall games, and even though the Knicks have cashed the under in five straight games, four of those five games were at home, and the one that wasn’t barely missed cashing the over by just two points.

The Knicks have cashed the over this season at only 15-15 when playing on the road, but the Nuggets on the other hand are the second best team in the NBA at cashing the over at home at 21-9-2, which is a success rate of 70 percent. Only the Pelicans and their lack of defense have a better record of cashing the over at home, and with that in mind tonight, I am going with the over for this game.

Denver is 12-9-1 cashing the over this season when playing against the East, and while most teams play better defense at home, that’s not the case for Denver. The Nuggets are giving up nearly 107 points per game when playing at home this season, and a big reason for that could be that they play a little faster at home. While they rank in the middle of the league in pace overall, the Nuggets play at the ninth fastest pace of any team when they play at home at nearly 99, and tonight with a bad road defensive Knicks team coming into town, expect that pace to go up again tonight. I encourage you to take the over for this NBA Pick and to see what other top plays we have going on for Tuesday Night

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NBA Pick: OVER 205.5
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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