Predicting Friday's Biggest NBA Upsets

Jake Walker

Friday, February 10, 2017 3:41 PM UTC

Friday, Feb. 10, 2017 3:41 PM UTC

This week's column explains why two road teams with playoff hopes offer great value to bettors on Friday. Read on to get the insider's NBA picks on all the action.

Nuggets vs. Knicks

The Nuggets had a slow start against the Hawks on Wednesday and a late-rally couldn't save them from a 117-106 road loss but they had won two of their previous three games and they're a young, hungry team with plenty of talented scorers. Denver ranks fourth in the league, scoring 110.1 points per game and they pull down 46.7 rebounds per game (second in the NBA), so New York could have a hard time stopping them.

The Knicks are a mess right now and it's hard to see how they can be favored on the NBA odds board against anyone. Not only have they lost six of their last eight games but there's more drama around them than usual. From Phil Jackson's feud with Carmelo Anthony, to Knicks legend Charles Oakley getting arrested at Madison Square Garden during Wednesday's game against the Clippers, to players like Joakim Noah underperforming... the list goes on. To make matters worse, New York's defense is giving up 109.0 points per game. Denver can exploit that weakness and all the distractions mentioned before.

The Nuggets are 10-8 ATS against Eastern Conference opponents and 16-11-1 ATS after a straight up loss. I will follow the betting value and back the more consistent and talented team. I'm taking the Nuggets +2.5 as their offense will be too much for the Knicks to handle.

Free NBA Pick: Nuggets +2.5 (-105)Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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Pacers vs. Wizards

The Pacers are playing their best basketball of the season, winning seven of their last eight games to move to 29-23, 7.5 games behind the Cavaliers in the Central Division and just 1.5 games behind the Hawks for the 5th seed in the Eastern Conference. Indiana is coming off a tough 132-117 home loss against Cleveland, which snapped their impressive winning streak, but they looked like a contender at times and even led by 15 points in the first quarter. 

The Wizards are also one of the hottest teams in the NBA, with wins in eight of their last nine games, but they barely beat the Nets, 114-110 in overtime on Wednesday. The fact that the Nets, the team with the worst record in the league, were able to score 110 points against the Wizards concerns me. Paul George has been unstoppable for the Pacers, averaging 24.4 points, 6.5 rebounds and 3.6 assists over his last 10 games and the Wizards will have a hard time cointaining him.    

Fatigue will be an issue for the Wizards, as their two games this week went to overtime and John Wall and Otto Porter Jr. have played way too many minutes over the last few weeks. Wall and Porter Jr. even rank first and third in minutes played per game this year. The season series between these two teams is tied 1-1, with both games being decided by six points or less. This will be another close contest. The Pacers have a deeper team and they might not win this game but they can keep it close enough to cover. I will add the Pacers +5 to my NBA picks.

Free NBA Pick: Pacers +5 (-110)Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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