We barely missed another perfect day of prop betting picks on Saturday. However, Sunday brings about some more beautiful NBA props, and I have found some more that look like great NBA Picks!
Klay Thompson O/U 21.5 points
With the news that Stephen Curry is likely making his return in Game 4 of this series, Klay Thompson will likely see his Usage Rate drop pretty significantly. He has taken 40 shots in the last two games that Curry has been out, and if Curry is back to his old tricks in this one, I expect Thompson to take less than 20 shots in this one. He took 14 in Game 1 where Curry played in half the game, and 15-18 shots in this one are more realistic.
Thompson has also been in an incredible shooting slump in this series. He is shooting only 35 percent from the floor in the first three games, and if that doesn’t improve here this afternoon, he is looking at his NBA odds going under. What hasn’t gotten talked about as much is the fact that he has to run around and chase James Harden, which has likely hurt his offensive output some. Last season in the playoffs against Houston, he shot only 41.7 percent in those five games, and never scored more than 24 points in game. He averaged only 17.8 per game in that series, so with precedence on our side, and Curry likely making his return, I am going under.
Free NBA Pick: Under 21½ -115
Isaiah Thomas O/U 8.5 rebounds and assists
We easily cashed this prop on the under in Game 3 when the number was 9 at Bovada, and even though it’s down to 8½, I am still liking the under. Isaiah Thomas was relegated to more of a shooting guard in Game 3 of this series, and it led to a career-high 42 points. However, he had only four rebounds and one assist in Game 3, and I don’t expect too many more here in Game 4.
Evan Turner and Marcus Smart took care of most of the ball handling duties in Game 3, and with how well it worked, I expect them to try that game plan again here in Game 4. The Celtics also sped up their point of attack in Game 3, and the pace of the game was well over 100 possessions per 48 minutes. In his last two games, Thomas is averaging only 5 total rebounds and assists per game, and as long as he doesn’t luck into too many rebounds in this one, I think the under is the play.
Free NBA Pick: Under 8½ -115
Al Horford O/U 11.5 rebounds and assists
For whatever reason, Al Horford has been somewhat absent from the Hawks offensive game plan in Games 2 and 3. I don’t know why, because if they would just give him more touches, he would easily command a double team. However, that actually works in our favor today as well. Horford was great rebounding and facilitating the ball in Game 3, and I expect that to continue here in Game 4. However, I also expect him to be more involved in the offense, and if the Celtics start to double-team him, he is going to find the open man.
Horford is averaging only 3.3 assists per game this series, but four or five shouldn’t be too hard to get in this one. As long as he is playing his normal 35 minutes, his rebounding should carry us over the top with 11½ rebounds and assists. He has cashed the over of this prop twice in this series with just rebounds alone, so as long as we get four or maybe five assists, this one should be an easy NBA Pick to cash.
Free NBA Pick: Over 11½ -125