Point Spread NBA Picks of the Day: Predicting Who Will Cover Odds

Jason Lake

Wednesday, April 1, 2015 12:04 PM GMT

As long as the Philadelphia 76ers keep beating the NBA odds, we’re going to keep adding them to our NBA picks. They’re getting 11.5 points Wednesday night against the dumbfounded Washington Wizards.

Jason’s record as of Mar. 30: 64-61-5 ATS, 7-11 Totals, plus-1.15 units ML

 

Thank goodness for the Philadelphia 76ers. They were our lead dog in Sunday’s three-pack of NBA picks, and they nearly won outright against the Cleveland Cavaliers (–16.5 at home) before succumbing 87-86. This has been a very profitable late-season run by the Sixers – kind of like what the Milwaukee Bucks did during their tanktastic 2013-14 campaign, when they went 21-14-1 ATS from Feb. 1 onwards.

No point in jumping off what is still a mostly empty bandwagon. With so many teams in flux when it comes to injuries and resting players, your best basketball picks at this point of the season are often with the young up-and-comers who have already hit rock bottom in the standings. Let’s dial up the Sixers and two more tasty ATS picks in our latest Wednesday trifecta.

 

Philadelphia vs. Washington (7:00 p.m. ET)
After that near-win over Cleveland, the 76ers (18-57 SU, 38-35-2 ATS) had another close shave against the Los Angeles Lakers Monday night, losing 113-111 in overtime, but it was the Lakers cashing in this time as 5-point road dogs. Ah, those pesky Lakers. Philadelphia is still 9-6 ATS in its past 15 games; our only concern is with Luc Mbah a Moute (11.1 PER, plus-0.3 DBPM), who has a sore shoulder and is uncertain for Wednesday.

The Wizards (41-33 SU, 28-45-1 ATS) have really fallen off the rails. We thought they were back on track with Bradley Beal (13.7 PER, plus-0.5 BPM) in the lineup, but after a nice 5-0 SU and ATS burst, Washington is 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS in its past six games. According to John Wall (20.3 PER, plus-3.9 BPM), players were forgetting their assignments coming out of time-outs during Sunday’s 99-91 loss to the Houston Rockets (–2 away). Uh-oh.

Free NBA Pick: Take the Sixers

 

Chicago vs. Milwaukee (8:00 p.m. ET)
The Bucks (36-38 SU, 41-32-1 ATS) are not the same team as last year, which should be a very good thing in the long run. But for now, everything’s gone to pieces. Milwaukee is 6-15 SU and 7-13-1 ATS since the trade deadline; in case you were living under a rock, the Bucks went for a major remodel with Michael Carter-Williams (13.4 PER, minus-2.1 BPM) at point guard. It’s not working yet, which is why Milwaukee is falling apart and the Sixers are beating the NBA odds.

Regarding our NBA picks decision-making, we’re liking what the Bulls (45-29 SU, 35-39 ATS) are doing right now. They’re somewhat healthy, they’ve won five of their last six SU and ATS, and Nikola Mirotic (18.0 PER, plus-1.0 BPM) is absolutely killing it off the bench. He’s third on the Bulls with 0.167 Win Shares per 48 minutes. Outstanding pick-up and stash by the Bulls on draft day in 2011; he only cost them Norris Cole, Malcolm Lee and cash.

Free NBA Pick: Take the Bulls -5.5 at 5Dimes

 

Denver vs. Utah (9:00 p.m. ET)
The NBA odds underdogs here, the Denver Nuggets (28-46 SU, 32-39-3 ATS), are still riding high after getting rid of Brian Shaw, going 8-7 SU and 11-4 ATS under interim head coach Melvin Hunt. The Jazz (33-41 SU, 39-33-2 ATS) dumped some ballast of their own in the form of Enes Kanter (17.6 PER, minus-4.2 BPM), who’s a much better fit in Oklahoma City. But after enjoying some solid post-deadline results, Utah is 3-5 SU and ATS in its last eight contests. Derrick Favors (22.2 PER, plus-2.7 BPM) has also missed two games with back spasms, and while the Jazz won both of them SU and ATS, they’re better off with Favors in the mix.

Free NBA Pick: Take the Nuggets (if Favors doesn’t play)