Point: Expect Scoring in Buckets in Game 6 at Golden State

Friday, May 25, 2018 3:47 PM UTC

Friday, May. 25, 2018 3:47 PM UTC

Game 6 of the West Finals in Oakland on Saturday night should be fast-paced, frenetic action as the Warriors try to stave off elimination vs. Houston. Let’s zero in on the total for this pivotal contest.

<h2 style="text-align:center"><a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/nba-basketball/houston-rockets-vs-golden-state-warriors-3468653/#matchup"><strong>Game 6: Rockets (39-56-2 O/U) at Warriors (44-52-1 O/U)</strong></a></h2><h2 style="text-align:center"><strong>Free NBA Pick: Over 213½</strong></h2><h2 style="text-align:center"><strong>Best Line Offered: <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=4992&amp;book=Betphoenix" rel="nofollow">BetPhoenix</a></strong></h2><p>[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3468653, "sportsbooksIds":[1389,274,238,43,19], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]</p><p>A quick check of the <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/nba-basketball/totals/">NBA odds</a> board reveals something is most definitely askew for Game 6 of the West Finals on Saturday. The previous two contests in Golden State between these clubs had the Warriors as eight-point favorites with the total hovering at about 227, give or take. If we look at what the oddsmakers are dealing on this matchup, we see that Golden State is a 10½-point opening favorite and the total has plummeted to 213½, which means something or someone is amiss. That someone is Houston’s Chris Paul, who suffered a hamstring injury late in the fourth quarter of the Rockets’ Game 5 victory on Thursday night.</p><p>I know that my SBR colleague Doug Upstone is betting the 'under' like he’s already read Sunday's newspapers and so too will the masses. The public’s penchant for favorites and 'overs' will most likely follow Golden State as their preferred side, but they will shift gears and bet 'under' because of Paul’s uncertain status. Moreover, these games have been defensive struggles, which is why Houston maintains a 3-2 lead and could clinch on Saturday night. Four of the five Western Conference Finals games have gone 'under,' with the latest being more of the same in the Rockets’ 98-94 Game 5 victory in a game where the total was 219½, a whopping six points less than the previous battle in Houston (Game 2). I may not be the sharpest knife in the drawer, but I sense a pattern.</p><p>[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;.&lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/TheofficialEG10?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;@TheofficialEG10&lt;/a&gt; came up big tonight! &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Highlights ⤵️ &lt;a href=\"https://t.co/9h9LTYeMrn\"&gt;pic.twitter.com/9h9LTYeMrn&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;— Houston Rockets (@HoustonRockets) &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/HoustonRockets/status/999870918586347521?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;May 25, 2018&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;\n&lt;script async src=\"https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;\n"}[/]</p><p>So why, oh why, would I possibly advocate for a wager on the 'over'? Seems silly, but the oddsmakers don’t offer numbers for one side and not the other. Although, a bet on the 'under' appears logical considering Paul’s potential absence, or at least lack of mobility if he does take the court <em><strong>(update: Paul has been ruled out)</strong>.</em> However, this will be a full frontal assault by the Warriors, and his absence could be a boon to a fast-break Golden State attack that won’t be concerned with Paul’s ability to steal and disrupt the Warriors’ offensive flow. Let’s also not forget that Houston has gone with a seven-man rotation, and these Rockets may be getting gassed.</p><p>I understand that Paul’s shooting prowess will be missed, but Eric Gordon has done a fine job off the bench and it will be his time to shine. In addition, Paul's defensive effectiveness against the Golden State offense has been overlooked. I like the fact this number has dropped so precipitously and am all-in on this game going high in my <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/nba/">NBA picks </a>on Saturday night.</p><h2 style="text-align:center"><a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/nba/counterpoint-game-6-concerns-lead-to-under-play-in-rockets-warriors/85370">Want A Headline, Swinging? Doug Says Game 6 Going 'Under' Again</a></h2>
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