We had our first winning prop night to move my Conference Finals record for props back close to .500, and tonight should be the night I turn from red to black. I have three more player prop NBA Odds from Bovada tonight, and all three of them look like excellent value.
James Harden O/U 14.5 rebounds and assists
With Dwight Howard hobbled, it basically takes him almost completely out of the post-up game, and with the exception of the occasional great individual play, James Harden is involved in a lot of the Rockets possessions. This includes plays where he doesn’t shoot the ball, and even on defense. His rebound and assist numbers have been off the charts in the playoffs, and even after he almost triple-doubled in Game 2, Bovada still has his NBA odds for rebounds and assists under 15 tonight. Plus, both sides of this prop have the same odds of -115, which seems to me that Bovada just has this number wrong. Harden has had 15 or more rebounds and assists in four of the Rockets last five games this postseason. On top of that, Harden has an AST% (percentage of field goals assisted on while on the court) of 37.4% in the playoffs so far, and his defensive rebounding percentage (DFB%) is just over 14%. If we just assume that there are as many rebounds in Game 3 as there were in Game 2 (60), that means if Harden holds true to his advanced rebounding numbers, we should be able to pencil him in for seven, or maybe even eight rebounds in Game 3. All the over in this one.
My Pick: OVER 14.5 rebounds and assists (-115)
Stephen Curry O/U 7 assists
We easily cashed this prop two nights ago when the number was 7½ (-140) but now our friends at Bovada have moved the number to seven. However, I still think that may be too high and once again the under looks like the play. Not only has Curry not gone over seven assists since the first round of the playoffs, the under is -105, the perfect value bet for Curry on the road here. Curry’s AST% has dropped a full six points from the regular season, but this has been a trend with Curry for the last two postseasons and still the sportsbooks are not catching on. Curry went from assisting on almost 39% of Golden State’s field goals while on the floor in the regular season, to 32% in the postseason. However his scoring has sky rocketed, from 23.8 points per game in the regular season, to 29.1 points per game in the postseason. Curry should be good for five or six assists tonight, but with how much the Dubs need him to score, seven assists is still lofty.
My Pick: UNDER 7 assists (-105)
Dwight Howard O/U 31.5 points and rebounds
Finally tonight, Dwight Howard is back in the Conference Finals, and even though he is a bit hobbled, it didn’t stop him from getting 19 points and 17 rebounds in Game 2 of this series. If he didn’t get hurt in Game 1, he might have had even more than that, and since it looks like he is good to go for Game 3 at home, I can’t imagine that he will have less than 32 points and rebounds tonight. That’s only 16 and 16. If you take away the game he got hurt, where he was on pace for over 20 rebounds, he has done that in eight of his last 12 postseason games. Tonight should be no different, and even though Andrew Bogut is an accomplished defender, Howard averaged three points and a rebound better at home this season, so expect a big game, even from a less than 100% Super Man as one of your NBA picks.
My Pick: OVER 31.5 points and rebounds (-135)