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Best bets today from around the NBA.
Best bets today from around the NBA.

Plus-money player props provide plenty of opportunities for profits ahead of today’s modest NBA slate. Our top NBA player props and best bets for Saturday are based on the best NBA odds.

Player props are the name of the game today, as we target three of for Saturday’s six-game slate.

The Los Angeles Clippers host the New Orleans Pelicans, and Kawhi Leonard will seek to stay hot offensively. Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat look for a win against the visiting Brooklyn Nets, and can Nikola Jokic record another triple-double when his Denver Nuggets host the Milwaukee Bucks? Finally, we look at a shrinking point total between the Utah Jazz and the Sacramento Kings.

Here are our top NBA player props and best bets for Saturday (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, and PointsBet; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale)

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Saturday’s NBA schedule and odds

(Odds via DraftKings)

  • Indiana Pacers (+9) vs. Atlanta Hawks
  • Brooklyn Nets (+5.5) vs. Miami Heat 
  • Milwaukee Bucks (+2.5) vs. Denver Nuggets
  • Utah Jazz (+8) vs. Sacramento Kings 
  • Philadelphia 76ers (+1.5) vs. Phoenix Suns
  • New Orleans Pelicans (+5) vs. Los Angeles Clippers

Saturday’s NBA player prop picks

Player prop: Kawhi Leonard Over 29.5 points vs. Pelicans (+120 via DraftKings Sportsbook) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Are we really about to get Kawhi Leonard’s points prop at +120? This one feels like highway robbery considering how well Leonard has been playing lately. Leonard is averaging 29.8 points over his last six home games, and he's scored at least 30 in four. He's also averaging 29.5 points over 11 contests since the All-Star break.

Paul George is out of action, and Leonard is averaging 29.8 points over his last six games without PG. Norman Powell is also sidelined, leaving Leonard to shoulder a huge offensive workload.

The Pelicans are 11th in points per game allowed at 112.8. But the team is significantly more generous on the road while giving up 116.5 points. Leonard’s points prop is set at 27.5 or 28.5 depending on the book, and the odds are shorter than the standard -110. It makes sense to bet on him scoring one more bucket for much longer odds.

Player prop: Jimmy Butler Over 36.5 points + rebounds + assists vs. Nets (-120 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

We’re not getting phenomenal odds here at -120. But that's good enough considering this bet is pretty much a lock. Jimmy Buckets is averaging 28.6 points, 6.2 boards, and 5.4 assists over his last nine games, good for 40.2 points, rebounds, and assists. Six of those contests have come at home, and he’s totaled at least 37 PRA’s in five. He notched 36 PRA’s in the one game that didn’t hit.

Butler is averaging 35.8 PRA’s at home this season compared to 32.1 on the road, and he’s experienced a big boost since the All-Star break. His PRA’s are up from 32.8 to 37.9 over 15 games since the break.

The Heat are just half a game up on the Nets for the No. 6 seed in the East, so expect Butler and Co. to come out fired up and hungry for a crucial win. This is an easy Over.

Player prop: Nikola Jokic to record a triple-double vs. Bucks (+125 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Denver’s star big man comfortably leads the NBA in triple-doubles at 28. He made history earlier in the season while becoming the sixth player in history to record at least 100 triple-doubles. And with two more in his final nine games, he’ll become the fourth player ever with 30 in a single season. To put it simply, triple-doubles are a regular occurrence for Jokic.

So far 20 of his triple-doubles have come at home, which is where he’ll be playing on Saturday. The Bucks are one of the Association’s best teams, and Jokic has been playing well against the top clubs. He’s recorded a triple-double against the Boston Celtics and Phoenix Suns, and two each against the Cleveland Cavaliers and Memphis Grizzlies. It's crazy that is odds to record another one on Saturday are being offered at plus money, so take advantage.

Check out our NBA Finals odds and NBA MVP odds.

NBA game picks

Total: Jazz-Kings Over 237.5 (-110 via FanDuel Sportsbook) ⭐⭐⭐

I went back and forth on this one before settling on the Over. The Utah Jazz have hit the Over in seven straight and nine of their last 10 games, while Sacramento has gone Over in each of its previous four contests. Lauri Markkanen and Jordan Clarkson are questionable for this one, and De’Aaron Fox is doubtful. The Kings average nearly 13 fewer points per game in contests without Fox, but the Jazz are scoring half a point more in games without Markkanen.

The lack of star power makes it seem like this game should lean heavily toward the Under, but these defenses haven’t stopped anyone this season. The Kings are second only to the San Antonio Spurs in points allowed at home (119.8), while the Jazz allow the seventh-most points on the road at 119.1.

Utah is 18-8-1 as the road dog this season, and Sacramento is 18-9 as the home favorite. This one opened at 241.5, but it’s quickly come down four points and may fall even more before tipoff. Bet the Over at 237.5, but consider making this play later in the day to get an even more favorable total.

NBA best bets made 3/25/2023 at 10:25 a.m. ET.

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