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NBA Player Props & Best Bets Today: Schedule, Picks for Thursday

Jon Metler

Last Updated: March 23, 2023 4:20 PM EDT • 1 min 64 sec read.

Best bets today from around the NBA.
Best bets today from around the NBA.

No Paul George, no problem. I'm betting on the Los Angeles Clippers! Jon Metler shares his NBA best bets for Thursday's schedule using the best NBA odds.

Yes, George is injured, and yes, the Oklahoma City Thunder defeated the Clippers on Tuesday. Those aren't valid reasons to fade the Clippers on Thursday, and the math backs it up. 

As the market has undervalued the Clippers on Thursday, a bet needs to be placed!

Check out our NBA picks and our best NBA betting sites.

Thursday’s NBA schedule and odds

(odds via FanDuel)

  • New York Knicks (-3) vs. Orlando Magic
  • Cleveland Cavaliers (-4) vs. Brooklyn Nets
  • Charlotte Hornets vs. New Orleans Pelicans (-8.5)
  • Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Los Angeles Clippers (-3)

Thursday’s NBA best bets

  • Moneyline: Clippers vs. Thunder (-143 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Player prop: Mikal Bridges Over 2.5 assists vs. Cavaliers (+132 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Thursday's NBA game picks

Moneyline: Clippers ML vs. Thunder (-143 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Clippers are projected to beat the Thunder by four points, but BetRivers has them as 2.5-point favorites, and it only gets better from there. There's an error in BetRivers' ML price for the Clippers. The Clippers spread is -2.5 (-114) at BetRivers, so its ML price should be -147, but we're able to purchase it at -143.

To provide context, BetMGM has a very similar spread on the Clippers at -2.5 (-115) and its ML is -155, which is also inaccurate, but in the opposite direction. You can't let BetRivers get away with an error like this, especially when we believe the Clippers will win by four points. 

We can price the Clippers at -158 to defeat the Thunder on Thursday based on our projection of Clippers -4. With our price of -158 and the option to buy the Clippers at -143 via BetRivers, this bet has a positive expected value of 4%.

Player prop: Mikal Bridges Over 2.5 assists vs. Cavaliers (+132 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

When you look at how often Bridges has recorded Over 2.5 assists in his last 10 games, you might not want to place this bet. However, it shouldn't discourage you from placing this wager.

Bridges is projected to drop exactly three dimes against the Cavaliers, and even though that's just slightly higher than his line of 2.5 assists, you're betting this prop at a whopping +132 for the Over. I can price this prop at -125 based on our projection, which means it has a positive expected value of 29%.

As it is very rare to find a bet with such a high expected value, you should do your shopping at BetRivers in order to maximize your advantage. Bridges is only trading at +114 on FanDuel and +115 on PointsBet.

Here are our best NBA betting sites:

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* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

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Written By:
Jon Metler
Jon Metler is a Sports Betting Analyst at SportsbookReview.com. Having played, coached, and officiated basketball, he immediately turned his attention to the NBA and College Basketball when he entered the sports betting space. Sports betting has been a part of his life for over 13 years, and he specializes in futures markets and player props, particularly in the NBA. In pursuit of value, he keeps a close eye on movements in the betting markets. He believes strongly in analytics and staying ahead of the curve; let the numbers do the talking. A graduate of the University of Windsor with a degree in Sports Studies, Jon enjoys spending time with his dogs when he isn't watching basketball.