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Best bets today from around the NBA.
Best bets today from around the NBA.

Can the Houston Rockets deliver their second green checkmark this week? Jon Metler shares his best bets for Friday's NBA slate of games using the best NBA odds.

The Houston Rockets on the spread twice in one week? That's bold, but you won't win money in sports betting by playing scared. 

Both double-digit underdogs I backed this week won outright, the Rockets and the Indiana Pacers. I'm not saying the Rockets will win outright again on Friday (only +6), but if they lose by five points or less, that Guinness will taste extra smooth. 

It's Friday, it's St. Patrick's Day, let's close out the week with a strong NBA best bets, which is 11-5 this week and up 4.89 units.

Here are our NBA best bets for Friday (odds via FanDuel SportsbookCaesars SportsbookDraftKings Sportsbook, BetRivers; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).  

Check out our NBA picks and our best NBA betting sites.

Friday’s NBA schedule and odds

(odds via FanDuel)

  • Philadelphia 76ers (-10) vs. Charlotte Hornets
  • Golden State Warriors vs. Atlanta Hawks (-2)
  • Washington Wizards vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (-6)
  • Memphis Grizzles (-7.5) vs. San Antonio Spurs
  • Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Chicago Bulls (-2.5)
  • New Orleans Pelicans (-6) vs. Houston Rockets
  • Boston Celtics (-4) vs. Portland Trail Blazers
  • Dallas Mavericks vs. Los Angeles Lakers (-5)

Friday’s NBA best bets

  • Player Prop: Kristaps Porzingis vs. Cavaliers (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Total: Grizzlies-Spurs Over 231.5 points (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Spread: Rockets +6 vs. Pelicans (-109 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Spread: Hawks -2 vs. Warriors (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Friday’s NBA player prop picks

Player Prop: Kristaps Porzingis vs. Cavaliers (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

I've attacked Kristaps Porzingis' assist prop this season, and he's been cashing tickets for me. On Friday, we're going a different direction, because we have an edge on his points prop. 

Porzingis is projected to score 22.2 points against the Cavaliers on Monday, which is well above the Washington Wizards center's 20.5 point total at DraftKings. With this projection of 22.2 points, we can price Porzingis at -130 to go Over his total of 20.5 points.

The DraftKings price is also rogue, with FanDuel at -122 and PointsBet at -125 on the Over 20.5 points. Our projections for Porzingis indicate a positive expected value of 7% for this wager by taking advantage of DraftKings' -110.

Check out our NBA Finals odds and NBA MVP odds.

NBA game picks

Total: Grizzlies-Spurs Over 231.5 points (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Memphis Grizzlies versus the San Antonio Spurs may not scream offense, but grab your green beer and put on your fun hat, because the math is on your side when it comes to the Over in this matchup. 

The projections have this game finishing with 234 points, which means that the Over 231.5 can be priced at -129, however we can snag it at 231.5 (-110) via Caesars. Additionally, the line is moving towards the Over, so you should take advantage of this early. At FanDuel and BetMGM, the total opened at 231.5, but has since been adjusted to 232.5.

BetRivers and Caesars are still trading the game total at 231.5, but Caesars has lower juice (-110), as BetRivers has the Over priced at -112.

Spread: Rockets +6 vs. Pelicans (-109 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

We already backed the Rockets once on the spread this week and they won outright against the Boston Celtics. It wouldn't bother me if the Rockets won outright on Friday, but I'd also take a five-point loss. 

The Rockets are 6-point underdogs across the board, but BetRivers gets our action because its juice is one cent lower, at -109. It's unlikely that this line will stay at Rockets +6 all day, so bet it on your lunch break. 

My projection for this game between the Rockets and New Orleans Pelicans is Pelicans -4. Therefore, we can price Rockets +6 at -137 and this bet shows a positive expected value of 10%.

Spread: Hawks -2 vs. Warriors (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

I could break down the offensive and defensive ratings of both teams and throw in some trends, but that won't matter because what matters is that FanDuel is asleep on this line.

We see FanDuel trading the Hawks as 2-point favorites when I have them winning by four points. This projection of the Hawks winning by four points means the line of Hawks -2 should be priced at -131, yet we can buy it at -110 on FanDuel.

There's more, we're not the only ones who think the Hawks should be favored by more than two points. The Hawks are trading as 3-point favorites at DraftKings and all other sportsbooks except BetMGM, which has them as 2.5-point favorites.

There's a solid chance that this spread will steam towards the Hawks throughout the day, as I'm certain that we're not the only ones who believe that the Hawks will defeat the Golden State Warriors by four points in this matchup.

NBA best bets made 3/17/2023 at 5 a.m. ET.

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