The Miami Heat have snatched home-court advantage in the NBA Finals, and they'll look to go ahead 2-1 over the Denver Nuggets. Sportsbook Review betting analyst Jon Metler shares his top NBA player props and best bets for Wednesday's Game 3 using the best NBA odds.
I've been in the "fade the high totals" camp when it comes to Jimmy Butler's points props during the NBA playoffs, but things have changed. The narrative has shifted, and the odds have been adjusted at our best sports betting apps. So, will this alter my approach to betting on one of Butler's props in Wednesday's Game 3?
There's nobody I feel more comfortable in investing my money into than Butler, and if the market is going to let me bet an Over, you better believe I'm hitting the button and writing a couple of paragraphs about it.
Here are our top NBA player props and best bets for Wednesday (odds via our best sports betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
(Odds via FanDuel)
- Denver Nuggets (-2.5) vs. Miami Heat
Wednesday’s NBA best bets
- Player prop: Jimmy Butler Over 25.5 points vs. Nuggets (-105 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Player prop: Caleb Martin Over 13.5 points + rebounds + assists vs. Nuggets (-120 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Player prop: Martin Over 1.5 assists vs. Nuggets (+200 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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Wednesday’s NBA player prop picks
Player prop: Jimmy Butler Over 25.5 points vs. Nuggets (-105 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
The prevailing narrative suggesting that Butler hasn't fully shown up in the NBA Finals has gained traction, impacting the market's perception of Butler's points prop. In his previous series against the New York Knicks and Boston Celtics, Butler's points prop reached as high as 29.5 at our best NBA betting sites. However, for Game 3 of the NBA Finals, it has dropped to 25.5 points.
Butler possesses a keen understanding of when to go all out and when to conserve his energy, making him a true assassin in crucial moments. With the Heat playing in front of their home crowd and the opportunity to put the Nuggets at a 2-1 disadvantage, I anticipate a masterclass performance from Butler on Wednesday.
According to projections, Butler is expected to score around 26.9 points against the Nuggets in Game 3. This projection, combined with the adjusted odds of 25.5 points (unlike the previous totals of 27.5 and 26.5 in Game 1 and Game 2), presents a betting opportunity for the Over. We can price Butler at -120 to score more than 25.5 points against the Nuggets based on this projection.
It seems we're not alone in this assessment, as Pinnacle has the Over 25.5 points priced at -122. DraftKings has also adjusted their opening line of Over 25.5 points (-105) and shifted the juice to -115. The momentum is leaning toward the Over for Butler, so I recommend taking action before we lose this rogue -105 available through BetMGM.
Jimmy Butler bet made 6/6/23 at 2:34 p.m. ET
Player prop: Caleb Martin Over 13.5 points + rebounds + assists vs. Nuggets (-120 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
I’ve eagerly awaited the opening lines for Martin's player props in Game 3 since the conclusion of Game 2. The prices were finally posted overnight and early on Wednesday morning at our best NBA betting sites. As I had hoped, there was an overreaction to his box scores from Game 1 and Game 2 without considering the full context.
Martin's points total was set at 16.5 prior to Game 1 of the NBA Finals. However, we witnessed the total drop to 14.5 points just before the game started. That adjustment was not due to doubts about his scoring ability, but rather because he was ill. He missed some practices before Game 2 and didn't contribute much in that game either, as he was still dealing with the illness.
Despite two consecutive games without a significant statistical output, I believe Martin remains a key part of the Heat's game plan. His limited minutes were primarily a result of the forward's illness, and head coach Erik Spoelstra entrusted him with closing minutes in Game 2.
If we adjust the projections to account for Martin playing 25 minutes—which seems reasonable considering his 21 minutes of playing time in Game 2—he's projected to accumulate 16.4 points, rebounds, and assists. Based on that projection, we can price the prop at -170 for the Over.
The best price for this prop can be found at bet365, where the Over on 13.5 is trading at -120. However, several of our best sportsbooks haven't posted odds on Martin yet, so I recommend shopping around at our best sports betting apps before placing your bet. You may be able to find a better number than the -120 I took.
Caleb Martin bet made 6/7/2023 at 12:45 p.m. ET.
Player prop: Martin Over 1.5 assists vs. Nuggets (+200 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Martin was experiencing a migraine and chills during Game 1 and Game 2. Now there's been adjustments made to his odds due to Martin's lack of production while being sick. In Game 1, the Over 1.5 assists for Martin was trading at -111, while in Game 2, it reached +116. Surprisingly, it's surged all the way to +200 prior to Game 3.
This market reaction appears to be an overreach, presenting an excellent opportunity to capitalize on Martin's props in Game 3. Martin is projected to record 1.4 assists against the Nuggets on Wednesday. While not an astounding number, it implies a price point of +150 for the Over 1.5 assists. The fact that we can currently bet on it at +200 makes it even more appealing.
Despite being sick and playing only 21 minutes in Game 2, Martin managed to generate six potential assists, resulting in one actual assist. That demonstrates his ability to create opportunities even in limited playing time and under unfavorable conditions. To put it into context, Kyle Lowry notched five potential assists that led to three assists, and Gabe Vincent tallied three potential assists that also resulted in three assists.
The best price for Martin's prop can be found at bet365, where it’s trading at +200. Another option is BetMGM, which offers +180. Many sportsbooks have chosen not to provide props on Martin due to the uncertainty tied to his health.
Caleb Martin bet made 06/07/2023 at 12:45 p.m. ET.
Here are our best NBA betting sites:
- FanDuel: $2,500 No Sweat First Bet | Read our FanDuel Review
- Caesars: Earn Up to a $1,250 Bet Credit | Read our Caesars Review
- DraftKings: Bet $5, Get $200 in Bonus Bets | Read our DraftKings Review
- PointsBet: Earn Five Second-Chance Bets Up to $50 Each | Read our PointsBet Review
- BetMGM: Get a Bonus Bet of Up to $1,000 | Read our BetMGM Review
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