Place NBA Pick on 'Over' as Spurs Visit Trail Blazers

Darin Zank

Monday, December 15, 2014 2:48 PM UTC

Monday, Dec. 15, 2014 2:48 PM UTC

San Antonio might be without two of its Big Three when it takes on the Blazers at the Rose Garden Monday night. Here's out attempt at handicapping this contest, with a free NBA pick for your consideration.

Spurs-Blazers Betting Odds
As of early Monday morning the NBA odds markets were holding off from lining this game, because of the uncertainty as to who might play for San Antonio tonight. G Tony Parker is probably out with an injury, and C Tim Duncan might get rested. Bettors might want to wait until closer to tip-off before getting down on this game.


Spurs-Blazers: The Match-Up
San Antonio went off this season with a wins OVER/UNDER of 57. At 17-7 the Spurs own the five spot in the Western Conference, and are on pace to win 58 games.

San Antonio recently won eight in a row, then lost at Brooklyn in overtime. The Spurs then won two more in a row, but got upset at Utah. They then beat the Knicks 109-95, covering as 10-point favorites at home, but then lost to the Lakers in overtime 112-110 as 12-point chalk. Last time out, Sunday night, San Antonio beat Denver 99-91, covering as five-point road favorites.

The Spurs shot 46 percent from the floor Sunday, and held the shorthanded Nuggets to 41 percent shooting. San Antonio led that game by 17 in the third quarter, allowed Denver to get within five points midway through the fourth, but shut the door from there.

Portland went off this season with a wins O/U of 49. At 18-6 the Blazers own the four spot in the West, and are on pace to win 62 games.

Portland just completed a 3-2 road trip with a 95-85 victory at Indiana Saturday night. The Blazers led that game by 20 at the half, by 29 in the third quarter, allowed the Pacers to get within eight points about halfway through the fourth, but closed out the victory and the cover as five-point favorites.

Portland only shot 44 percent from the field Saturday, but held Indiana to just 39 percent shooting. Maybe that's why that game played UNDER 193.


Spurs-Blazers, By the Numbers
San Antonio ranks seventh in the league in FG shooting at 46 percent, sixth in 3-point shooting at 37 percent and eighth in FT shooting at 78 percent. The Spurs also rank seventh in FG defense, holding opponents to 44 percent shooting, fourth in rebounding at +3.1 per game and own a 24/14 assist-to-turnover ratio.

Portland ranks 19th in shooting at 45 percent, 10th in 3-point shooting at 37 percent and fourth in FT shooting at 79 percent. The Blazers also rank fifth in FG defense at 43 percent, fifth in rebounding at +2.4 per game, and own a 23/13 assist-to-turnover ratio.


Spurs-Blazers Recent History
This is the first meeting this season between these two teams. Last year these teams split four games during the regular season, each team winning once on the other's home court, with the underdog going 3-1 ATS. San Antonio then dispatched of Portland in a Western Conference semifinals playoff series in five games, going 4-1 ATS. The Spurs took the first two games of that series at home, then won Game 3 in Portland to take the stranglehold.

So San Antonio went 6-3 both SU and ATS against Portland last year, with the totals going 5-4, as the games averaged 207 points.


Spurs-Blazers Betting Trends
San Antonio is 11-13 on the totals this season, as Spurs games have averaged 197 points. They've played five OVERS in their last six games, but that can be attributed in part to some relatively low totals.

Portland is 9-15 on the totals, as Blazers games have averaged 198 points.

San Antonio is 9-5 SU, 8-6 ATS on the road this season.

Portland is 10-2 SU, 7-4 ATS at home.


Injury Update
San Antonio G Tony Parker has missed recent action with a bad hamstring, and is questionable for Monday night. And Duncan played 32 minutes Sunday night in Denver. We're not sure how Coach Pop will handle that situation.


Spurs-Blazers Free Pick
Because of the San Antonio personnel situation we can't discern looking to the side with your NBA picks here. But recent Spurs-Blazers games have trended a bit toward the high-scoring. So we like the OVER for our free NBA pick in this spot.

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