Pistons to Pour It on Leaky Wizards

wizards pistons

Jay Pryce

Friday, January 19, 2018 1:07 PM GMT

Friday, Jan. 19, 2018 1:07 PM GMT

The Wizards look to shore up a leaky defense as they travel to Detroit to take on the Pistons on Friday (8 p.m. ET). Washington is a small 1-point favorite. Who wins? Check out our thoughts here.

Washington Wizards at Detroit Pistons (+1)Free NBA Pick: PistonsBest Line Offered: 5Dimes

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3264233, "sportsbooksIds":[19,169,1275,180,92], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

Wizards (25-20 SU, 19-26 ATS)

Poor Defense Fuels Poor ATS Run, Century Mark Club

Washington’s 133-109 defeat at the Hornets on Wednesday was the most it allowed an opponent to score above its projected team total all year. Charlotte put up 24.5 more points than the betting market expected, going off as 2-point chalk with a 215.5 game total. The Wizards, in fact, have let foes surpass their team total in eight of their last nine games. This might explain why they are 1-8 ATS in this stretch.

The Wiz have gifted 100 points in 16 straight games, the NBA’s longest streak this season. They are 5-11 ATS in this span, surrendering 109.5 points per game. The difference from performances earlier in the year is across the board. The team is giving up more chances and stopping less. It’s yielding a slightly higher field-goal rate (44.9 to 46.4 percent), more rebounds (44.1 to 43.5) forcing fewer turnovers (15.1 to 13.6), you name it.

The offenses the Wiz struggle against most in this 100-point run are those good near the rim. Points surrendered jumps to 111.6 against those averaging more than 43 points from the paint per game, as opposed to 106.0 scoring fewer from the area. Detroit puts up 43.3 points per game up close. Here's head coach Scott Brooks lamenting the Hornets loss, lack of defense and need for his team to step it up under the basket:

[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "

Coach Brooks, John Wall and Bradley Beal on a frustrating loss in Charlotte #WizHornets pic.twitter.com/xRxaSJQfR7

— Washington Wizards (@WashWizards) January 18, 2018
\n"}[/]

Pistons (22-21 SU, 24-17-2 ATS)

Hot Start Fizzled, Defense Fueling ‘Unders’

Remember when Detroit began the season one of the best teams in the NBA? Well, the hot start fizzled. Going 14-6 SU and ATS to open the year, the franchise is 8-15 SU and 10-12-1 since the start of December. The offense lost its mojo, going from 105.8 points per game on 46.4 percent shooting to 98.9 and 43.7, respectively.

The defense has stayed a constant force throughout, particularly at Little Caesars Arena. The Pistons yield 103.7 points per 100 possessions in the building, the sixth-most efficient home rate in the league.

No matter the game site, the defense fairs well vs. the NBA’s best scoring teams. It surrenders just 102.5 points per game against those putting up more than the 105.6 league average. The betting market is missing with game totals big time in this scenario. The ‘under’ is 14-5-1 for the year, a 205.0 combined score staying 5.2 points south of the number.

The Verdict

Pistons head coach Stan Van Gundy knows how to stop teams trending like the Wiz. Since 2015, Detroit is 13-3 SU and 12-4 ATS at home vs. foes scoring and surrendering more than 105.5 points per game in their last 10 played. Washington’s figures are 111.3 for and 110.2 against in this span. Expect Detroit to have a good night offensively and add to the Wiz’s ugly century-mark run. Pistons win 109-101. Take them straight up.

comment here