Pick T-Wolves +12.5 As Thunder Won't Cover Spread At Home

Swinging Johnson

Friday, March 11, 2016 4:56 PM UTC

Friday, Mar. 11, 2016 4:56 PM UTC

The Timberwolves are set to embark on a four game road trip starting tonight in Oklahoma City while the Thunder look to make it three in a row. Let’s review the NBA odds.

Minnesota Timberwolves (20-45 SU, 29-35-1 ATS)
The T-Wolves have dropped five of their last six and covered the NBA odds in only two of those contests. Despite owning the first overall draft picks in 2014 and 2105 in the forms of Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns, Minnesota has been unable to do much this season with the young talent at their disposal. As of this morning the team is headed for the draft lottery once again with only 20 wins on their record against 45 losses.

Their last outing was another in a season filled with double digit losses as San Antonio dribbled into Minnesota and ripped the Timberwolves by the score of 116-91, easily covering as 10 ½ point road favorites. Once again the young guns led the scoring charge as Andrew Wiggins netted a team-high 23 points with eight rebounds while Karl-Anthony Towns scored 19 to go along with nine boards. Second year man and dunk champion Zach LaVine (13th overall pick in 2014) had 15 in the loss but he has been heating up since being switched from point guard to shooting guard by head coach Sam Mitchell. Over the course of his last seven games LaVine has averaged 18.7 PPG as his minutes have increased markedly since the end of February.


Oklahoma City Thunder (44-20 SU, 24-37-3)
Defending champion Golden State is enjoying an historic season. The San Antonio Spurs continue to be amongst the NBA’s best because they get it done with team basketball versus one or two superstars dictating the ebb and flow of every game. The Cleveland Cavaliers are tops in the East primarily because they have a king reigning supreme every time they take the court. And after those teams are mentioned as championship contenders there is Oklahoma City and Kevin Durant lurking in the shadows.

With 18 games remaining they are third in the Western Conference and will most assuredly eclipse 50 wins this season. Despite that fact, they are 13 ½ games back of the Warriors and trail San Antonio by 10 for the second seed in the conference. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook will more than likely head into the postseason as the third seed in the West unless the Clippers can catch them. Oklahoma City is perhaps the most talented afterthought in all of sports.

However, ask those who have included the Thunder in their NBA picks this season and you would get a resounding thumbs down as they have ATS covers in only 24 of their 64 games played this season. Once again they are double digit favorites but will they do what they have done throughout this season and win the game but blow the cover? We shall see.


Betting Analysis
OKC has won all three games against the Timberwolves this season and will be gunning for a series sweep tonight. In the games played in Minnesota the T-Wolves lost but covered the number in both contests. However, in their only trip to Oklahoma City they were blasted as 13-point road dogs in a 113-93 rout. So here we are again. The T-Wolves are in the bottom third of all the major categories (scoring, points allowed and rebounds) while the Thunder is 2nd in points scored averaging 110.1 PPG and tops in rebounding averaging 48.1 boards per game.

The Thunder is 26-8 at home straight up but 16-17-1 ATS while the T-Wolves are 9-23 on the road straight up but a surprising 18-14-2 ATS. On paper this looks like a mismatch but in their last meeting the Timberwolves battled tooth and nail only to fall 126-123 in Minnesota on January 27th.  Let’s also not forget that the Thunder will have to pack up right after the game and travel to San Antonio for a prime-time affair against one of their biggest rivals tomorrow night. The Thunder get the win but the T-Wolves get the cover as OKC looks ahead to a Saturday night showdown in San Antonio.

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NBA Pick: Minnesota +12.5
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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