With an important member of the Spurs set to make his return tonight, do you think the Mavs have a chance to once again be a solid road ATS wager, or will the Spurs turn back into the team we know they can be and cover?
Parker round the corner
Tony Parker has missed the last several weeks due to a wide variety of injuries, and even though he has missed some time, he is ready to make his return to the court tonight against Dallas. The Spurs need him too. Even though they have gone 4-2 ATS and 5-1 SU since Parker went down, the Spurs are approaching their home stretch, and with all of their team finally healthy, you have to think the Spurs are about to go on a run SU and possibly ATS. Plus they are running out of time to get their chemistry in order for the playoffs, of which they are only 1-½ games back of OKC for the #1 seed.
Parker is a bad mismatch for either Jose Calderon or Monta Ellis, and even though he hasn’t played since before the All Star Break, Parker should be able to come in and give the Mavs trouble right off the bat. He really wasn’t hurt too badly to begin with. The Spurs were dealing with a ton of injuries to begin the All Star Break, and even though Parker’s injuries were all smaller ones, they built up to become a problem, and Parker was given some much-needed rest. He has become the most important member of that team, and while I expect him to be a little rusty coming back, he could also be very well rested too.
The Sharp Pick
Dallas is only 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall, and they have lost their only two games against the Spurs so far this season both SU and ATS. In both of those previous games, Parker played, and played very well, scoring 23 and 25 points respectfully against Dallas. If he can comeback and give them even close to that production from the two previous games, I see the Spurs having excellent NBA Odds value.
Dallas has lost now five straight games against the Spurs SU, and they are only 1-6 ATS in their last seven games against the Spurs overall. With only Dirk Nowitzki to worry about for the Spurs, I expect a lot of trouble scoring from Dallas tonight on the road. The Spurs are much better defensively with the return of Tiago Splitter and Kawhi Leonard, and I expect Leonard to see plenty of time trying to defend Nowitzki tonight.
San Antonio is only 5-11 ATS at home against the Western Conference this season, but with Parker back, that should help their value a little tonight. Although he is still listed as a game time decision, it’s been in the air for a few days that he is expected to play unless something unpredictable happens between now and then. As always, make sure you double check Parker’s status tonight.
My Pick: Spurs -5 ½