Pick Pacers vs. Bucks to Go 'Under' in Tonight's Defensive Battle in Milwaukee

Charles Stark

Thursday, March 26, 2015 1:41 PM GMT

Look for a grind out battle when Indiana visits Milwaukee.  I am taking the under the total in this game, read more to see why you should add them to your NBA picks.

Playoff aspirations
After a bumpy start to the post All Star break season Milwaukee has continued to not play very good basketball.  Indiana was looking good for a while coming out, but recently hit a bad slide, they did though win last night.  Currently the Pacers are sitting in the 8th spot in the Eastern Conference, a bit on the outside looking in.  The Pacers are expecting George back real soon which could get them that final push.   It is still unclear where these two will end by the end of the season.  The NBA odds makers have made the Bucks a slight favorite in this game and the total is set at 186.5.  That total is very interesting to me, but more on that in a bit.

Grow your bankroll with this NBA two-pick parlay for tonight's game

Tempo and overall offense
Recently both teams have started to, or at least been a part of, games that really went up and down the floor.  In the last three games The Bucks lead the league in field goals attempted at 95.3 per game, Indiana is not far behind at 88.3 per game which ranks fifth in the same time frame.  Both teams have been scoring at a blistering pace the last three games, the Pacers at just over 104 points a game and the Bucks at just over 102.  These numbers really conflict with the teams overall averages for the year.  Milwaukee on the year averages only 81.8 field goals attempted per game, much lower than their recent trend, Indiana is also above their year average of shots attempted, for the year they average 83.5 attempts, like the Bucks, much lower than the recent trend.  That is not all though, the recent scoring trend is an anomaly as well, the Pacers and the Bucks on the year average only 96.7 and 97.6 points per game respectively.

 

Focused on D and true shooting
Despite these recent upswings in numbers both teams really have their focus on defense; and on a deeper look neither teams shoots the ball particularly well. On the year Indiana and Milwaukee are tied for the third best shooting percentage allowed in the league at 43.5% from the field.  Offensively since the break the teams rank in the bottom half of the league in shooting percentage with the Pacers at 44.6% and the Bucks at 43.1.  They also rank in the bottom half of the league in this time frame in shooting percentage from beyond the arc and overall scoring average.  Both teams don’t have a ton of offensive weapons at their disposal, and although recently they have been involved in games that pushed pace, at their core they are defensive minded teams.

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Finally the number
These two teams met a couple weeks ago and went for 192 in regulation, and the line is set at 186.5.  Also, both teams have really been on an offensive upswing this past week, and again, the line is set at 186.5.  I think it is easy for people to want to ride the wave and wager that this game will continue to see both teams score at a good pace.  I don’t think so.  These two teams are grind it out, defensive first teams, I think they get back to their roots tonight and I look for a real low scoring defensive battle.  I am taking the under the total and I recommend you add this to your NBA picks.

NBA Pick:  Indiana/Milwaukee Under 186.5 at Pinnacle

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