Pick 'Over' in Tonight's Lakers vs. Hawks Matchup

Jordan Sharp

Tuesday, November 18, 2014 2:01 PM GMT

Tuesday, Nov. 18, 2014 2:01 PM GMT

With NBA Odds in favor of a so-so Hawks, should you consider the Lakers for your NBA Pick today?  Even Shaq O’Neal has some sympathy for Kobe Bryant and the kind of Lakers team he has to play with.

Los Angeles Kobe’s
If you watched the Lakers after Shaq left for the Heat, it was all about Kobe, It was the Kobe show, and now it’s the Kobe Show once again. Bryant is carrying the Lakers, but even though he is averaging over 27 points per game, he hasn’t been enough to get the Lakers out of the bottom of the West. One has to wonder when enough will be enough, and Bryant forces a trade out of LA as to not waste the last few years he has on those knees. Bryant scored 44 points on 34 shots on Sunday, but the Lakers still lost the game.

Tonight against the Hawks, NBA odds list the Lakers +9 ½ underdogs, with a total of 212 ½. While the spread is large, it’s warranted. Even though the Hawks haven’t looked like it to start the season, they are a solidly built team. They have a good guard combo with Jeff Teague and Kyle Korver, and while neither of them will put up much of a fight defending Bryant tonight, I expect the Hawks will use more of DeMarre Carroll and newly acquired Thabo Sefolosha to defend Bryant.

Even though those two will likely not make much headway either, as I mentioned above, the Hawks could win this game even if Bryant goes for 50 points. They don’t have many other options on offense, while the Hawks have a solid front and backcourt to spread out the Lakers, and get the win here.

But the question is, will the Hawks cover tonight at home? I’m not sure about that, but the total of 212 ½ actually has some nice value, and it seems to be a safer wager than the spread this evening.

 

The Sharp Pick
The Lakers have won a total of one game this season, and only twice this season have they held an opponent to under 100 points. In their game against the Warriors, one of the best Western conference teams right now, they gave up 136 points, and on the season, they are the worst defensive team in the NBA, giving up over 112 points per game.

For the Hawks, their normally solid defense hasn’t been there either this year. They are also giving up well over 100 points per game, and with that in mind, I think the over is the play here tonight. The over is 38-18 in the Hawks last 56 games as a favorite between five and ten points, and the over is 4-1 for the Hawks in their last five games versus a team with a losing record. For the Lakers, the over has cashed in seven of their last nine games this season, and in their last four road games in a row. The over is also 4-0 for the Lakers in their last four games as a road underdog, and 7-1 in their last eight games on a Tuesday. While I would have liked to get my NBA pick in on this total when it was a little lower, 212 ½ is still enough value for me to take the over.

Free NBA PickOVER 212 ½ at 5Dimes

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":338302, "sportsbooksIds":[19,43,227,1096,999996,93,238,123,139], "LineTypeId":5, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

comment here