Pick Home Team at a Short Spread: Clippers vs. Grizzlies

Darin Zank

Sunday, November 23, 2014 4:25 PM GMT

Sunday, Nov. 23, 2014 4:25 PM GMT

Memphis owns the best record at 11-2 SU, with three covers in a row. But the LA Clippers shot the hell out of the ball earlier this week. Here's our attempt at picking a winner on this NBA pick.

Clippers-Grizzlies Betting Odds
Most of the NBA odds betting market opened this game with Memphis favored by three points, the total proffered at 198. In the early betting the spread had held steady, while the total dropped a point, to 197. NBA bettors who think the Clippers might win this game outright could get a price of +140 on the moneyline at BetDSI.

 

Clippers-Grizzlies: The Match-Up
After going 50-32 last season, then losing to OKC in the first round of the playoffs, Memphis went off this season with a wins OVER/UNDER of 49. At 11-2 SU (7-6 ATS) the Grizzlies are well on their way already to playing OVER their total. Memphis had won four games in a row, but Tuesday night in Toronto a shorthanded Grizzlies team blew a 10-point third-quarter lead and lost 96-92. But Memphis bounced back Friday night, beating Boston 117-100. The Grizzlies shot 53 percent from the field, held the Celtics to 43 percent shooting, and won the battle in the paint by a 66-38 margin.

In the other corner, after going 57-25 last season, playing through a lot of off-court shit but coming up short in the playoffs again, LA went off this season with a wins total of 55. At 7-4 SU (just 3-8 ATS) the Clippers have started slowly, but might be warming. LA has begun its current seven-game road trip with two victory/covers. The Clippers won at Orlando Tuesday night 114-90, covering as five-point favorites, and at Miami Wednesday 110-93, covering at -4. LA shot 54 percent from the floor against the Magic, making 12 of 21 shots from 3-point land, then shot 56 percent against the Heat, making 13 of 31 shots from long range.

 

Clippers-Grizzlies Recent History
Memphis took two of three games from LA last season, going 2-1 ATS. The Grizzlies beat the Clippers in November in LA 106-102, winning straight-up as eight-point road dogs. Los Angeles then returned the favor, winning in Memphis in December 101-81, cruising to a cover as a one-point favorite. The Grizzlies then beat the Clippers in February at home 102-96, winning outright as a two-point home dog. Two of those three games played OVER the totals. Memphis shot 45 percent from the field in those three games combined, and held LA to just 42 percent shooting. Two seasons ago the Clippers won the first two games of a first-round playoff series against the Grizzlies, but Memphis stormed back to take the next four games.

 

Clippers-Grizzlies, Statistically Speaking
Memphis ranks 16th in the league in FG shooting at 46 percent, fifth in 3-point shooting at 38 percent and fourth in FT shooting at 80 percent. The Grizzlies also rank eighth in FG defense, holding foes to less than 44 percent shooting, 13th in rebounding at +0 per game, and own a 21/12 assist-to-turnover ratio. The Clippers rank fourth in FG shooting at 47 percent, seventh in 3-point shooting at 37 percent and 15th in FT shooting at 76 percent. They also rank 20th in FG defense at 46 percent and just 29th in rebounding at -5 per game, but own a 24/12 A/TO ratio, which is nice.

 

Clippers-Grizzlies Betting Trends
The Clippers are 6-5 on the totals this season, as their games have averaged 204 points. Memphis is 7-6 on the totals, even though Grizz games have only averaged 192 points. Going back to last season Memphis is 21-0 SU (regular season) but only 11-10 ATS in its last 21 home games.

 

Clippers-Grizzlies Free Pick
LA has been hot on this road trip so far, but runs into a little tougher defense Sunday than it did in Orlando and Miami. And the Grizz have had a couple days to get over their bout with the flu bug. So for our NBA pick we like Memphis in this spot, the home team at the short spread.

Free NBA Pick: Grizzlies -3 at 5Dimes

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":338342, "sportsbooksIds":[19,43,227,1096,999996,93,238,123,139], "LineTypeId":5, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

comment here