Pick Grizzlies +10 to Cover as Double Digit Road Dogs vs. Warriors Tonight

Joe Gavazzi

Tuesday, May 5, 2015 2:37 PM GMT

Tuesday, May. 5, 2015 2:37 PM GMT

The Memphis Grizzlies meet the Golden State Warriors for a second time in this 7-game second round series. So far, the Warriors have been leading, but will this be the case tonight? Read my betting preview to find out which teams make it to my NBA picks.

Memphis Grizzlies vs. Golden St. Warriors (-10-) 10:35 ET TNT TV
This is a continuation of Round 2, of a 7 game series between Memphis and Golden St. Golden St. won the first game on Sunday (101-86).  In that game, Memphis was without lead guard, Conley, who is suffering from a facial fracture. Without Conley, who has missed the last 3 games after undergoing facial surgery, the Grizzlies’ offensive rhythm has been disrupted and you should keep this in mind when looking at the NBA odds. The Grizzlies committed 16 TOs on Sunday, their most in a playoff game in nearly 3 years.  In addition, although Gasol had a 21/9 night, he was limited to 10 shots without the threat of Conley operating the “pick and roll.”  The Grizzlies also missed Conley’s ability to score in the open court and from behind the arc. Good news for Memphis is that Conley is questionable for the game tonight, implying he may well return.  In a microcosm of the offense of these two teams, Golden St. shot 13/28 from behind the arc (46% on Sunday) to just 3/12 from behind the arc for Memphis (25%). That 30 point differential is a gap that must be closed, if the Grizzlies are to remain competitive in this series.

Memphis clearly has an opposing style to that of Golden State. Their offense will clearly flow better, if Conley is able to return.  But, their emphasis on defense and rebounding is a major reason why this team is 30-17 ATS in playoff action the last 4+ years. With the imposing interior forces of Randolph and Gasol, the Grizzlies have a dominant edge on the interior if they can feed them the basketball. The Memphis defense was good enough to hold the splash brothers, Curry and Thompson to a combined 40 points.  It will be up to defensive specialists, Allen and Conley (should he return), to limit the looks of Curry and Thompson.  Should that occur, the fundamentals will greatly even out for Memphis in this game.

The announcement that Curry was the NBA MVP of the 2015 season adds a bit of pressure to a 3-point shooter, who converted more triples than any other player in the history of the league this season. Much like the Heisman Trophy winner in football, we can look to play against this guy in his first game after receiving the award.  At one point in the season, Golden St. was 26-12 ATS on their home court through April 10th.  Since that time, however, they are just 1-5 ATS, all as favorite of 8 or more points. One of those victories was against Memphis on April 13th, a 111-107 victory.  

Many of you will remember that we profited greatly from double digit road dogs in Round 1 in these NBA playoffs. A solid basic foundation is playing any double digit road dog in NBA playoff action, if they are off a straight up and ATS loss in their previous game.  But, the subsets are too numerous to mention, including one that has over a 90% history of success in Game 2 of Round 2 in the NBA playoffs.

NBA Picks: Take Memphis Grizzlies with your NBA picks

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