Philadelphia 76ers ATS the NBA Pick on Road in Sacramento

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, March 24, 2015 5:50 PM GMT

Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an overlay side that has a better chance of cashing than its spread, offering long term value. Here is their Side Value Play for Tuesday.

 



Despite having one of the worst straight up records in the NBA, the road underdogs could hold value Tuesday night when those Philadelphia 76ers (17-53, 5-29 away) pay a visit to the Sacramento Kings (24-45, 15-21 home) at Sleep Train Arena in Sacramento, CA at 10:05 ET in a game available on Comcast SportsNet - Philadelphia.

The point spread at Pinnacle Sports has Philadelphia as a decided road underdog for this contest with the current line at +8½ with odds of +100.


Kings Beats Back-to-Back Playoff Teams
The Kings come off of back-to-back home wins over playoff teams at the time, but do not read too much into that. First they beat a Charlotte Hornets team that is no longer in a playoff position in the weak Eastern Conference having dropped to ninth in the conference, and then they beat a Washington Wizards team that is struggling right now as evidenced by a 31-point loss at Golden State last night. Thus the Kings might be a tad overvalued here.

Now the 76ers are a very youthful team that may have the least talent in the NBA on paper, especially after trading Michael Carter-Williams, and they were the losing NBA picks to the lowly Los Angeles Lakers on the road at the Staples Center 101-87 on Sunday, but they have actually been very pesky in this decided underdog role this year as they have taken the high road by usually giving an honest effort every night as opposed to tanking for a better draft position.


76ers Over .500 ATS
In fact, the Sixers are surprisingly over .500 ATS this season overall at 35-33-2! Granted Philadelphia has been at its best when playing at home as the loss at Staples was the 15th straight road defeat for the 76ers, dropping them to 5-29 straight up on the road this year. However, keep in mind that the Sixers did win here in Sacramento last season with a team that finished the season at 19-63.

This 76ers team need just two wins in the last 12 games to match that mark and we actually like the resiliency that the young Sixers have shown lately when coming off of bad outings like the one vs. the Lakers, as they are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a straight up loss and 8-2 ATS their last 10 following an ATS loss. We see no reason why that pattern cannot continue here as the poor Sacramento defense is capable of keeping any opponent in any game.


Kings Playing No Defense under Karl
Now, this season started off in promising fashion for the Kings when they began 9-5 straight up and 10-4 ATS after 14 games, but it has been a tumultuous run since then that began with the surprising firing of Coach Mike Malone and then culminated with a second coaching change with the veteran George Karl taking over following the All-Star break.

And as you would expect with a Karl-coached team, the Kings have been even worse defensively since he took over than they were before the latest change, and as a result have now fallen to 29th out of 30 NBA teams in points against overall at a generous 105.1 per game.

Yes, Sacramento held both opponents to under 100 points in the last two wins, but that was vs. two struggling Eastern Conference offenses and the Kings had allowed over 100 points in 14 of the first 15 games since Karl took over as coach prior to that. In fact, even with those last two outings, the Kings are allowing 107.7 points per game overall under Karl!


Philadelphia Loves Visiting Sacramento
Finally, when the 76ers won in this building last year, it was not an aberration and this team that otherwise struggles on the road has now incredibly won its last six visits to Sacramento straight up. In fact, the Sixers may have the Kings number regardless of the venue as Philadelphia is 11-2 ATS in the last 13 head-to-head meetings between these clubs overall.

Look for that pattern to continue for at least one more game, so take the nice amount of points when Philadelphia visits Sacramento on Tuesday.

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NBA Pick: 76ers +8½ (+100)