It’s been a profitable 2014-15 campaign for the UNDER, but as we near the end of the regular season, the OVER has become the better NBA pick. Should we pound the OVER in all 3 of Tuesday’s games?
Jason’s record as of Apr. 12: 69-68-5 ATS, 8-13 Totals, plus-0.15 units ML
The long, long NBA regular season is about to draw to a close. We’ve pretty much broken even thus far here at the home office – the playoffs is where we figure to generate most of our profits in any given year, if the ball bounces our way. However, we’re still not pleased with our record against the total. This was a problem with our NFL picks, too, but even if we just threw darts at the board, or let an octopus make our NBA picks, we should still come in around 50 percent in the long run.
So let’s make the long run happen by adding another three games to our sample size. This looks like a perfect opportunity to exploit the marketplace; the players are tired, defense is getting sloppy, and the OVER is 119-107 (52.65 percent) during the past 30 days. Narrow that down to the past seven days, and the OVER is 26-22 (54.17 percent). Let’s see if there’s anything going on in these three games to move us off that default pick.
Toronto vs. Boston (7:30 p.m. ET)
On the season, the Celtics have the OVER at 22-17-1 when they play at the Garden, and a very tasty 16-7 in games where they’re favored by fewer than six points. Boston is a 4-point chalk on the NBA odds board as we go to press. We’ve been singing his praises all year, but Isaiah Thomas (23.0 PER) has been a great add for the Celtics – mostly on offense, where he leads the team by a country mile at plus-6.7 OBPM.
The Raptors don’t play defense particularly well, and that goes double on the road, where the OVER is 27-13. Things only get worse without Amir Johnson (15.2 PER, plus-0.9 DBPM), who’s missed the last four games with an ankle injury and might not return until the playoffs. That stretch includes the Apr. 4 game against Boston, which the C’s won 117-116 in overtime (OVER 208.5).
Free NBA Pick: Take the OVER at BookMaker
Washington vs. Indiana (8:00 p.m. ET, TNT)
The return of Paul George has given the Pacers an added boost for their playoff drive. He’s been good for roughly 10 points in 15 minutes per game since making his season debut; in those four games, the OVER is 3-1. We might see a few added minutes from George on Tuesday, with Indiana one game back in ninth place in the Eastern Conference as we go to press.
The Wizards could end up spoiling things, though, if they decide to give John Wall (20.1 PER) another maintenance day instead of taking him on the road. Wall was given the night off in Friday’s 117-80 loss to the Brooklyn Nets (UNDER 198). Just in case, we’re making this a condition pick on Wall’s presence.
Free NBA Pick: Take the OVER (if Wall plays) at 5Dimes
L.A. Clippers vs. Phoenix (10:30 p.m. ET, TNT)
Speaking of dubious offense, the Suns have the UNDER at 16-3 over their past 19 games, so we’re not terribly enthusiastic about going against the grain here. Thomas and Goran Dragic are no longer with the team, and Brandon Knight (10.6 PER) is injured. Not much backcourt scoring left to go around here.
The Clippers have the UNDER on a four-game winning streak, so that just reinforces our NBA pick in this situation. DeAndre Jordan (20.8 PER, plus-3.2 DBPM) might not deserve to win Defensive Player of the Year honors, but he’s still one of the best in the league, and it helps our cause that he shoots 39.7 percent from the free-throw line.
Free NBA Pick: Take the UNDER at BetOnline