Pellies Soap Opera Gives ‘Under’ Value Versus Lakers

Friday, February 22, 2019 6:43 PM UTC

Friday, Feb. 22, 2019 6:43 PM UTC

Saturday’s game between the Los Angeles Lakers and New Orleans Pelicans should be interesting – but all this drama should make the ‘under’ the right NBA pick.

Jason’s 2018-19 NBA picks record through Feb. 21:
12-11 ATS, 0-2 ML (minus-4.35 units), 17-7 Totals

L.A. Lakers (29-29 SU, 25-31-2 ATS) at New Orleans (26-33 SU, 28-30-1 ATS)
Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET
Free NBA Pick: Under
Best Line Offered: BetOnline

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3569775, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,238,19,43,180], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

Well, this is awkward. The New Orleans Pelicans are about to host the Los Angeles Lakers. You know what that means: Endless stories about Anthony Davis and LeBron James. We’d love to tell you how the budding Davis-James bromance will play out against the NBA odds, but there’s too much going on with Saturday’s matchup to bother with the point spread. The total, that’s a whole other matter.

Lonzo Journalism

Arguably the most important thing to note about Saturday’s matchup is the fact that the Pelicans are playing Friday – on the road, against the Indiana Pacers. The Lakers are off following their dramatic comeback win at home over the Houston Rockets on Thursday. This is a significant advantage for L.A.

We’re still leery of putting the Lakers in our NBA picks. With Lonzo Ball (plus-0.7 BPM) on the sidelines with a sprained ankle, they’re neither here nor there at 3-3 SU and ATS in the games that James (plus-7.7 BPM) has played since his return from the injured list. At least they quietly made a smart move by getting Reggie Bullock (minus-0.3 BPM) from the Detroit Pistons and putting him in the starting lineup ahead of Rajon Rondo (minus-2.0 BPM). Bullock has his limitations, but he can shoot the 3 (39.0 percent), and the Lakers need that. Badly.

Throwing It All Away

Our larger concern is with New Orleans. This situation with Davis (plus-8.6 BPM) is just stupid – he didn’t get traded by the deadline like he wanted, and now the league is “forcing” New Orleans to play him, although they’ve since told reporters that they’re going to limit his minutes. They’re also going to do the same with Jrue Holiday (plus-2.9 BPM). It’s like this is the exhibition season, and the coaches are making the game plan public ahead of time.

Thing is, the Pellies were a solid pick at 3-6 SU and 7-2 ATS while Davis was sidelined, awaiting a possible trade to Los Angeles. They’ve got Jahlil Okafor (minus-1.3 BPM), whose career is getting resurrected in the Big Easy, and they’ve got Julius Randle (plus-1.8 BPM), so they’re not totally devoid of big men – even after sending Nikola Mirotic (minus-0.1 BPM) to the Philadelphia 76ers at the deadline.

[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "

LeBron: “You told them all 29 teams right?”

Anthony Davis: “Ya I even said to throw the Seattle SuperSonics in there” pic.twitter.com/AnddWXl9lZ

— LakeShowYo (@LakeShowYo) February 16, 2019
"}[/]

We’re going to sidestep all this by hammering the ‘under’ instead. Taking minutes away from their top two offensive players, and taking Mirotic out of the equation, should help keep the score low on Saturday. Plus, even though everyone (more or less) had the week off for the All-Star break, the Pellies should be tired as they play the second of back-to-back games, after traveling in between. And the Lakers don’t have Ball. We’ll buy that for a dollar.

comment here