Pelicans and Warriors to go ‘over’ in Game 2 is the NBA Pick

LT Profits Sports Group

Monday, April 20, 2015 2:17 PM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Monday.

 



Look for a higher scoring contest Monday night than in Game 1 of the series, and that would mean an ‘over’ when the eighth seeded New Orleans Pelicans (45-38, 17-25 away) again pay a visit to the top seeded Golden State Warriors (68-15, 40-2 home) for Game 2 from Oracle Arena in Oakland, CA at 10:35 ET in a game televised nationally on TNT, with the Warriors leading the series 1-0.

The posted total at Bet365 is 205 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘over’ set at -110.


Game 1 Landed Right On This Total
The Warriors drew first blood in this series with a 106-99 triumph in Game 1, although a 33-22 fourth quarter for the Pelicans that cut an 18-point deficit down to seven allowed New Orleans to slide under the point spread as 12½-point underdogs. Note also that Game 1 ‘pushed’ the posted total of 205 and Game 2 now has that exact same posted total.

Golden State was the best NBA pick in basketball during the regular season at 67-15, which may result in Stephen Curry winning the league MVP award and Steve Curry winning Coach of the Year in his first season as a head coach at any level! Give the Pelicans credit also as they earned the eighth spot by beating the then red-hot defending NBA Champion San Antonio Spurs in the regular season finale, enabling all five teams from the Southwest Division to make the playoffs.


Nervous Pelicans?
Remember that Game 1 was the first playoff experience for many of the youthful Pelicans, and a case of nerves could have contributed to them falling behind by 25 points 85-59 at one point in the third quarter.

However, the Pelicans finally found their shooting touch scoring the last seven points of the third quarter to trim the deficit to 18 points and then scoring the first seven points of the fourth quarter for a 14-0 run, ultimately out-scoring Golden State 40-22 to end the game and break the hearts of Warriors’ backers against the spread everywhere.

New Orleans still finished at just 42.2 percent shooting from the field for the game, but we look for improvement in that area now that the Pelicans have one playoff game under their belt, especially with the encouraging way they made the Warriors sweat a bit by the end of the game on Saturday.

Anthony Davis finished with 35 points while Quincy Pondexter added 20, but the only other Pelican in double figures was Eric Gordon with 16 points and we look for improved showings from the other New Orleans players for Game 2, and it would also help if the questionable Tyreke Evans, who left Game 1 with a knee contusion after scoring just one measly point in 11 minutes, is able to suit up and give his normal effort.


Warriors Capable of Better Too
The Warriors scored their 106 points in Game 1 on 45.7 percent shooting overall, which is not what most expected from a team expected to make short work of the Pelicans this series. Could it be that Golden State relaxed with a 25-point lead in the third quarter and nearly paid dearly for it? Perhaps, and for that very reason do not expect much of a let-up in this game. Then again, the Warriors may not get a chance to let-up if New Orleans plays better from the start.

And when Golden State plays at its full capacity from start to finish, this is a club that led the NBA in scoring (110.0 points per game), field goal percentage (47.8 percent) and three-point shooting (39.8 percent) during the regular season, and although the Pelicans were a respectable 11th in points against at 98.6 per game, they were also just 23rd in field goal percentage allowed at 45.6 percent, so look for the Warriors to raise their percentage over Game 1.

It would also help if the Warriors get a bit more from their bench tonight as while all five starters scored in double-digits Saturday led by the dynamic backcourt of Curry (34 points) and Klay Thompson (21), the biggest contributor off the bench was Andre Iguodala with only eight points in 31 minutes.


Nice ‘over’ Run at Home
Prior to ‘pushing’ the total in Game 1, the ‘over’ had been 9-2 in the Warriors’ last 11 home games to end the regular season, and it is not as if the 205-point total output of Game 1 was particularly low.

But we do look for improvement from both offenses from Game 2, so go ‘over’ when New Orleans visits Golden State in Oakland on Monday.

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NBA Pick: Pelicans, Warriors ‘over’ 205 (-110)