Pelicans vs. Wizards to go Over for your NBA Picks

Jordan Sharp

Saturday, February 22, 2014 2:25 PM GMT

The Pelicans are coming off a hard fought game in Charlotte last night, and now they head into Washington DC for a matchup with the Wizards. The NBA Odds have Washington as a -5 ½ favorite, with a total of 195 ½. Even with the Pelicans coming off the back to back, they should be able to put up some points against the Wizards’ defense. With that being said should we trust them to cover on the second night of a back to back, or will Washington come out and jump on the tired Pels?

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Spread safe; total safer

Even though I am very tempted to jump in and lay the points with the Wizards here, there could be some extra value with a total wager for this game. The Pelicans had a tough game last night, so their legs will likely be tired. Anthony Davis was the only Pelican to have a solid game last night, and tonight against the Wizards, it might happen again.

Even though the Wizards’ defense isn’t as solid as Charlotte’s, it is still a pretty good unit. I doubt the Pelicans are held below 90 points again tonight. The Wizards beat them back in January in New Orleans, 102-96, and I’m seeing a game where the score ends up close to what it did six weeks ago. The Pelicans have no scoring outside of Davis and the erratic scoring of Eric Gordon, and going against a balanced team like the Wizards will lead to them give up some points.

The Wizards may have the most balanced starting five from 1-5 in the East, and all five of them are capable of giving double digits, or even 20 points in scoring. John Wall has taken that next step this season, and going against Brian Roberts tonight will lead to plenty of points for Wall. Bradley Beal is another one of the young Wizards who is taking a big leap this season. Both of these guys should have great scoring games, leading to the over having some value tonight on this low total of 195 ½ on the NBA odds board.

The Sharp Pick

The Pelicans have not played well on the second night of a back to back this season, and I see that trend continuing, at least on the defensive end. New Orleans is 4-7-2 ATS when playing on no rest this season, but once again, -5 ½ is a pretty sharp spread. The total of 195 ½ is a nice value however. The Pelicans give up a lot more scoring when they are tired, and it has led to the total going over at 7-6 this season on no rest.

Washington on the other hand has had a couple of days off in between their last game and this one, and it should help them out a lot tonight as well. The Wizards are 6-4 cashing the over when playing on either 2-3 days rest, and they are 7-3 ATS in those games.

The Pelicans are 13-10 this season cashing the over versus the East, and with the Wizards actually being a solid East team, that trend should continue. Washington has been very good in their last ten days straddling the All Star Break. The Wizards are averaging 103 points per game in their last ten, and giving up just over 101 per game.

NBA Pick: OVER 195 ½