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Brandon Ingram of the New Orleans Pelicans drives to the basket at Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, Louisiana. Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images via AFP.
Brandon Ingram of the New Orleans Pelicans drives to the basket at Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, Louisiana. Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images via AFP.

Huge playoff implications are on the line as the New Orleans Pelicans and Golden State Warriors clash at Chase Center on Tuesday. Read on for our Pelicans vs. Warriors prediction based on the best NBA odds.

It’s do-or-die time in the Western Conference, as we’re just over a week away from the end of the regular season. The New Orleans Pelicans are back in the playoff picture in the play-in tournament after spending a good portion of the last month on the outside looking in, while the Golden State Warriors are clinging to the No. 6 seed. 

Both squads are in desperate need of a win, but who will come out on top?

Here is our best Pelicans vs. Warriors NBA pick (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

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Pelicans vs. Warriors pick

Pelicans +8.5 (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

Don’t look now, but the Pelicans have won five straight heading into Tuesday’s clash with the Warriors.

The Pels’ last five wins have come against the Houston Rockets, Charlotte Hornets, San Antonio Spurs, Los Angeles Clippers, and Portland Trail Blazers. Each of those teams is either out of playoff contention or missing at least one key starter. Should we be worried about regression when facing a much better opponent?

While the Warriors should offer more of a challenge to the Pelicans than the aforementioned teams, it’s worth noting how much the Pels have overwhelmed the opposition of late. They have cruised past opponents by an average margin of victory of 27.3 points during this win streak.

New Orleans’ defense has helped it stay afloat while dealing with injuries to Brandon Ingram, C.J. McCollum, and Zion Wiliamson. The Pelicans rank ninth in points per game allowed at 112.4, and no team has allowed fewer points than New Orleans over the last three at just 98.7. 

Golden State is better on both ends of the court at Chase Center, but this line is too high for a Pelicans team that’s been hotter than nearly every other squad in the Association. This should be a competitive affair, so we’re taking New Orleans to cover.

Pelicans vs. Warriors best odds

DraftKings (-110)

Pelicans +8.5Pelicans +9Pelicans +8.5Pelicans +8.5Pelicans +8.5

We can choose any of the featured books for our wager, but we’ll avoid FanDuel. The extra half a point requires us to take shorter odds, but there’s no payoff in doing so. If the Pels win by nine, we’ll push at FanDuel but win at every other book. The benefit is in the line at 8.5, where we get more profitable odds to boot.

Pelicans vs. Warriors odds

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Pelicans vs. Warriors odds analysis

Golden State opened as big favorites at -9.5, and that line has come down just a bit since then. Bettors have shown confidence in the Warriors to win big at home, with 56% of wagers on Golden State to cover. The Warriors are 25-12-1 ATS at home, while the Pelicans are 15-22-1 on the road.

The point total opened at 235.5, and it’s come down by 1.5 at some shops. The Pels have hit the Under in 15 of the last 20 contests, while Golden State has hit the Under in three straight and four of the last six. The Warriors are better defensively at home, allowing 6.3 points fewer at Chase Center, and the team is 14-22-2 to the Over on the season. 

Pelicans vs. Warriors game info

  • Date: Tuesday, March 28, 10 p.m. ET
  • TV: NBA TV
  • Location: Chase Center, San Francisco, CA

Pelicans-Warriors pick made 03/28/2023 at 10:25 a.m. ET.

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