Pelicans vs. Warriors NBA Pick: New Orleans Confident in Beating GSW

Joe Gavazzi

Monday, April 20, 2015 2:32 PM GMT

The New Orleans Pelicans and Golden St. Warriors will meet tonight for their second game of the playoff series. Our expert handicapper analyzes the odds offered and shares his NBA pick for this matchup.

 

New Orleans Pelicans vs. Golden St. Warriors (-12-) 10:35 ET TNT TV
The New Orleans Pelicans and Golden St. Warriors continue their Round 1, best of 7 series, with Game 2 slated for 10:30 ETon Monday.  The game will be televised live on TNT. In Game 1, Golden St. held a 25 point lead with less than a minute remaining in the 3rd quarter.  They were easily handling a New Orleans team, who appeared to be flat, after they defeated San Antonio in Game 82 of the regular season to clinch this playoff spot.  As so often happens in the NBA, however, complacency set in with the team with the lead, while the trailing team responded with pride.  New Orleans actually closed to within 4 points in the late going, before Golden St. closed it out in the final minute.  

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Must give credit to New Orleans for their Game 1 comeback!  It showed they are more than “just happy to be here.”  Pelicans’ star player, Anthony Davis, was spectacular in his first playoff start with a line of 35/7, including 20 fourth quarter points.  Concerns for tonight will be the availability of Tyreke Evans, who left Game 1 with a knee injury.  His season-to-date line of 17/5/7 would be missed, if he were unable to contribute some minutes.  

 

For 3 quarters of the first game, the Warriors looked like the best team in the NBA in bolting to that 25 point lead.  All 5 starters scored 10 or more points, including Stephen Curry, knocking down 34.  The real reason for the failure to cover, however, may have come at the foul line where the Warriors, who convert 77% from the stripe, missed 13 foul shots in “bricking” their way to a 21-34 performance from the foul line.   

 

As well as Golden St. has played on their home court this year, they have produced a record of 40-2 SU, 26-13 as home chalk.  But, a recent inspection of their recent log shows that they are now 0-4 ATS as home favorite of late with their 4 most recent home victories against Minnesota, Memphis, Denver and New Orleans all by single digits.  In addition, note that in NBA playoff Game 2 of a series, double digit dogs, coming off exactly 1 defeat, are a solid 75% play over time with an even stronger mark, if they are playing an opponent with a .750 or better win percentage.  Zig-zag with New Orleans to this victory, now that they have the confidence of knowing they are able to play with this team, and back them with your NBA picks.

NBA Pick: Take New Orleans Pelicans

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