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Nikola Jokic of the Denver Nuggets dribbles the ball in the first half of the game against the Phoenix Suns.
Nikola Jokic of the Denver Nuggets dribbles the ball in the first half of the game against the Phoenix Suns. Photo by Justin Tafoya/Getty Images/AFP.

After playing two lower-scoring affairs in New Orleans, will Round 3 between these two capable offenses finally see a shootout? Read on for our Pelicans vs. Nuggets NBA picks based on the best NBA odds.

The Denver Nuggets (34-16) have played just two games that finished below 200 total points this season. The most recent one came last week in a tight road win against the New Orleans Pelicans.

Though games in Denver have trended Under on the year, we’re looking for an alternate outcome Tuesday when the Pelicans (26-25) bring their trend of high-scoring road games to town.

Here is our best Pelicans vs. Nuggets NBA pick (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

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Pelicans vs. Nuggets game info

Date: Tuesday, Jan. 31, 2023, 10 p.m. ET
Location: Ball Arena, Denver, CO

Pelicans vs. Nuggets odds

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Pelicans vs. Nuggets odds analysis

The Nuggets opened as 7.5-point favorites and have moved to between -6.5 and -7 across our affiliated sportsbooks. This movement seems to have incentivized bettors to pour money onto Denver as the Nuggets have seen 69% of point-spread wagers.

We’re seeing a similar phenomenon with the total, which opened at 234.5, but has dropped to a range between 231 and 232 across the board. Factoring in the line movement, it’s been the Over that has seen the bulk of the wagers at 63%.

Pelicans vs. Nuggets pick

Pelicans vs. Nuggets Over 231 (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Both games between the Pelicans and Nuggets so far this season have fallen short of tonight’s prescribed total. First came a 121-106 win for the Pelicans in New Orleans in December. A week ago, the Nuggets got revenge in that same arena, squeaking out an uncharacteristically low-scoring 99-98 win.

Now that the matchup shifts to Denver, though, there’s reason to believe that scores will be inflated. The Nuggets have one of the higher home-road scoring disparities in the league this season, averaging 6.6 more points in home games than they do on the road.  

The Pelicans are exactly the opposite. New Orleans is one of four NBA teams to have a higher scoring average on the road than it has at home this season. New Orleans ranks second in the NBA in its rate of Overs hitting in its road games at 68% (17-8).

Only 10 of Denver’s 26 home games have gone Over this season. Denver boasts a solid scoring defense in home games (109 points per game) that has kept a number of its contests below lofty totals. But the line for Tuesday night has moved in our favor to the point of becoming a value. Four of the five games on Denver’s last homestand have reached 235 or more total points.

Pelicans vs. Nuggets best odds

DraftKings (-110)


DraftKings and FanDuel have seen the largest decrease in the total after it opened around 234.5. That works in our favor, particularly at DraftKings where you can snag standard -110 odds on the Over. FanDuel offers the odds at -112 on the Over.

Over bettors should avoid the current lines at BetMGM, Caesars, and PointsBet as the number floating between 231.5 and 232 at those locations is less favorable than the 231 offering at DraftKings and FanDuel.

Pelicans-Nuggets pick made 01/31/2023 at 2:10 p.m. ET.

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