Pelicans Live Game 3 Dogs Down on the Bayou

Anthony Davis

Swinging Johnson

Thursday, May 3, 2018 2:52 PM UTC

Thursday, May. 3, 2018 2:52 PM UTC

The Pelicans will try to crawl back into this Western Conference Semifinal matchup against Golden State as the series shifts to New Orleans. Let’s review the NBA odds and analyze this Game 3 showdown.

Warriors (64-25 SU, 37-49-3 ATS) vs Pelicans (52-36 SU, 50-37-1 ATS)

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Free NBA Pick: Pelicans +4Best Line Offered: at BetPhoenix What’s trending
  • New Orleans is 5-1 ATS in all playoff games this year.
  • New Orleans is 24-16 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
  • New Orleans is 23-15 ATS after scoring 115 points or more this season.
  • Golden State is 8-19 ATS after three or more consecutive wins.
  • Golden State is 8-19 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season.
  • Golden State is 5-8 ATS on Friday nights this season.

Game Analysis

It was just the second time in 76 postseason games that Steph Curry was not a member of the starting unit. The two-time MVP was waiting in the wings but once he hit the court with 4:20 left in the opening quarter, he drained a three on his first shot in anger in over six weeks and hardly missed a beat in the Warriors’ 121-116 Game 2 victory over the Pelicans. Only teammate Kevin Durant scored more (29) than Curry as he ended with 28 points (8-15 FG, 5-10 3Pt, 7-7 FT), seven boards, two assists and three steals during his 27 minutes off the bench. It’s fair to assume Curry’s stint as a backup will come to a screeching halt on Friday night when the series shifts to New Orleans.

It was a disappointing loss for the Pelicans as they had all five starters in double-digits with Anthony Davis leading the way with 25 points, 15 rebounds, and three blocked shots. His sidekick Jrue Holiday notched 24 points over a game-high 47 minutes and rebounded from a dismal effort in Game 1 where he scored just 11 points on 4 of 14 shooting from the field. The Pelicans will need similar offensive contributions on Friday night but their defense must be tighter if they are to succeed. Defeating the Warriors on their home court has eluded them over the last five meetings, going 0-5 straight up yet 3-2 against the spread versus Golden State in the last five games played in New Orleans. In fact, the Warriors have won 12 of their last 13 meetings against the Pelicans regardless of venue but are just 7-6 ATS.

Those numbers tell us that when factoring in the points, the Pelicans have covered about half the time when playing the world champs. And so it is again, that the NBA odds board reflects New Orleans as the underdog despite their home court advantage on Friday night. We should keep in mind that when the public sees Golden State they ignore the stats, trends, and matchups and just lay it on the Warriors because…they’re the Warriors. But blindly backing Golden State in your NBA picks has not been a winning strategy this season as evidenced by Golden State’s 37-49-3 ATS record.

The upshot of this matchup is that the Pelicans are a tough team that hung tough with the Warriors in Game 2 and easily covered the number as 11-point road dogs. As I scan the lines over at the major online sportsbooks I can see that shops are dealing GSW anywhere from -3 ½ to -4 a day before tipoff. My advice is to grab the best number possible on the home dogs, which right now is over at BetPheonix, currently running a dynamite program where they are offering a 175% Free Play Sports Bonus on cash deposits of $300 or more. I like the Pelicans to keep it close in this game and could even pull the upset because they know there will be no coming back from a 3-0 deficit to the best team on the planet. Back the boys on the Bayou.

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Some of the top plays from Game 2 vs. the Warriors. #doitBIGGER pic.twitter.com/YROVoKfjae

— New Orleans Pelicans (@PelicansNBA) May 2, 2018
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