Pair of Total Plays for Tuesday's NBA Picks of the Day

Jordan Sharp

Tuesday, November 11, 2014 3:38 PM UTC

Tuesday, Nov. 11, 2014 3:38 PM UTC

After splitting a pair of NBA Picks yesterday, I’m back at it once again this Tuesday evening. There are five games tonight, and I've identified two NBA betting line that look to offer some value.

Magic vs. Raptors
The Raptors are cruising along despite some injuries to their frontcourt recently. Even though Jonas Valanciunas is dealing with a hand injury, he has not missed a game yet, and his presence tonight against Nikola Vucevic is going to be crucial for the Raptors. The NBA Odds have Toronto as a huge -10 ½  favorite, however with the lofty spread, I am laying off and going with a wager on the total, which sits at 201 ½.

The total has been soaring upward ever since it opened yesterday, and since then it’s moved a total of five full points up to 202 ½ in some sportsbooks. Apparently there are some over backers out there, but I am going in the opposite direction of those guys. In fact, the under looks like the best play for this game.

The Raptors are going to lock in on defense and not allow Vucevic to go off like he has been doing, and without Victor Oladipo for another few weeks, this Magic team is going to struggle to score. Likewise the Raptors might not drop 100 easy points like this total suggests. The under is 5-2 for the Raptors dating back to last season when they play on one day rest, and for the Magic, the under is long-term trending at 36-15 in their last 51 road games. On top of that, the under is 11-4-1 for the Magic in their last 16 games following a SU loss, and 16-5 in their last 21 games as underdog between +5 ½ and +10 ½. Take the under tonight as your NBA Pick.

Free NBA Pick: UNDER 201 ½ at 5Dimes


Thunder vs. Bucks
The Thunder were able to pick up a win against the Kings this past week, but their chances of making the playoffs are shrinking every day they miss Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant. They have a good shot at getting a win tonight according to the sportsbooks, as the NBA Odds have them as only +2 ½ underdogs against the Bucks, with a total of 188 ½.

Even though I would like to think that even shorthanded, the Thunder could beat the Bucks on the road, but with OKC right now nothing is given. Instead, I am once again laying off the spread and going with the total. However for this one, I see the over being the best play.

With the under cashing in their last four games, the NBA Odds have really undervalued this total of 188 ½. Both teams aren't going to play much defense, and it should lead to some lofty numbers from some of the better players in this game. Brandon Knight should be able to score the ball well, while Reggie Jackson on the other side will also likely benefit from the lack of defense in this game.

The over is 8-3 dating back to last season for the Bucks when they play a team with a losing record of 40% or below, and the over is 5-0 for the Bucks when their current opponent scores 100 or more points in their previous game. It should be a fast-paced contest tonight in Milwaukee, and I see the final score being around 98-94, cashing the over.

Free NBA Pick: OVER 190 at Bet365

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