Pacers, Bulls to Sneak ‘Over’ Total is the NBA Pick

LT Profits Sports Group

Wednesday, March 18, 2015 6:47 PM UTC

Wednesday, Mar. 18, 2015 6:47 PM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Wednesday.


There could be a sneaky ‘over’ Wednesday in a game with a deflated total when the Indiana Pacers (30-36, 12-20 away) pay a visit to the Chicago Bulls (40-28, 20-14 home) at the United Center in Chicago, IL at 8:05 ET in a game available on Comcast SportsNet - Chicago.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 188 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘over’ set at -108.

Pacers Now in a Playoff Spot
The Pacers have come a long way since a terrible start to the season with a depleted roster, as most of their players are now back except for Paul George and they have surged all the way up to a playoff spot in the weak Eastern Conference despite still being six games under .500, as they are now the seventh seed, although they are actually in a three-way tie with the Heat and Celtics with Boston being on the outside looking in after tiebreakers.

However Indiana has now lost two straight games to the Toronto Raptors and those Celtics both at home following a seven-game winning streak.

The Bulls meanwhile are second on the Central Division 2½ games behind the Cleveland Cavaliers, but they are heading in the wrong direction as the losing NBA picks in five of their last six games while needing overtime to get the only win in this span over the lowly 76ers. Chicago is now in danger or dropping out of the fourth seed and losing the home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs, leading the Washington Wizards by just one-half game.

Bulls Tend to Go ‘over’ at Home
The Bulls have not been very consistent while battling injuries much of the season and they are even just 20-14 here at home, but one thing that has been consistent about them has been their tendency to go ‘over’ with more regularity at home, as the ‘over’ is 21-13, 61.8 percent at the United Center.

Up until this season the Bulls played great defense but were often offensively challenged in their first four seasons under Coach Tom Thibodeau, all coming to a head last season when Chicago simultaneously led the league in fewest points allowed defensively and ranked dead last in points scored offensively. Well, that offense is much improved this year with the Bulls ranking a more respectable 13th in the league in scoring at 100.8 points per game.

Furthermore Chicago has played at a faster pace here at home than in recent seasons and consequently its scoring average is up to 101.9 points per game in the Windy City.

On the flip side, the Bulls have not been as dominant defensively, which cannot please the defensive minded Thibodeau too much. Chicago is only 11th in the NBA in points against at 98.9 per game and ninth in field goal percentage allowed. The Bulls are allowing 99.5 points per game in Chicago, meaning that their home games are averaging 201.4 points combined, which blows away this posted total.

Pacers Defense Losing Steam?
Now the Pacers are third in the NBA in points allowed at 96.3 per game, but they have apparently played to a lot of deflated totals as a result as it is the ‘over’ that is 35-28-3 in all Indiana games this season including 18-12-2, 60.0 percent on the road, with those road contests averaging 193.8 total points. Now that would ordinarily be considered a low total, but it is actually nearly six points higher than this posted total.

And that Indiana defense is having some uncharacteristic problems right now allowing over 100 points in two of the last three games including allowing 117 points on 47.6 percent shooting in the loss to Toronto, including 12-for-23, 52.2 percent shooting from beyond the three-point arc.

In fact the Pacers have now gone ‘over’ in three of their last four games overall.

Went ‘over’ in Chicago Last Time
Now granted, the ‘under’ is 4-1 in the last five head-to-head meetings between these teams, but the lone ‘over’ came in the only meeting here in Chicago this season, staying in line with the Bulls’ home ‘over’ pattern.

And with this low posted total, look for that trend to continue for at least one more game with another ‘over’ in Chicago when Indiana comes to town on Wednesday.

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NBA Pick: Pacers, Bulls ‘over’ 188 (-108)


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