Overvalued NBA Teams To Fade This Upcoming Season

Jordan Sharp

Sunday, July 17, 2016 8:04 PM UTC

Sunday, Jul. 17, 2016 8:04 PM UTC

After a wild free agency period, the NBA future odds are out and moving fast. However, after some teams made big name acquisitions, could their over (or under) valued future odds lead to similar outcomes ATS this upcoming season?

Based on my reading of their futures, here are three teams that could be great fades heading into the beginning of next season:

Golden State Warriors (59-45-2 ATS 2015-’16)
As you have probably heard, Kevin Durant is going to the Warriors. The offseason’s biggest news and probably the biggest free agent news since Lebron James left and then came back to Cleveland, Durant is going to make the Warriors a tough team to beat. Golden State has been an outstanding ATS bet over the last two years. Including the playoffs, they are 117-99-3 ATS over the last two seasons, but could this finally be the season where the Dubs are too overvalued?

The last time an NBA super team got together in Miami in 2010, things didn’t go great ATS at the beginning. The sportsbooks such as BetOnline knew Miami’s big three were going to be good, but they also knew it would take a while for them to gel. Miami finished 52-49-2 ATS that season they started out really slow ATS. The same could happen for the Warriors this season, so it might be a good idea to fade them as NBA picks early on the road, because they are going to be double digit favorites in almost every game this season.


Chicago Bulls (36-46 ATS 2015-’16)
The Chicago Bulls are almost always overvalued, and last season was no different. However, without Derrick Rose, and now with Rajon Rondo and Dwyane Wade, this team is sure to be overvalued once again. There is even more name value than last season, but the Bulls are going to be similarly bad/average next season. Rondo does not fit on this team, and Wade is likely going to be around for only a year before teaming up with Lebron James again. Plus, Wade is going to be lucky to play more than 60 games anyway.

That leaves the Bulls to play Rondo, Jimmy Butler and a host of players who are either still young, or average themselves. However, for some reason, the Bulls own future odds in among the top 10 teams. Chicago is not going to be one of the league’s top 10 teams next season, and their ATS value over the last few years proves it. Since 2012 Chicago is only 165-190-2 ATS, which is the third worst mark among all teams in that span.


New York Knicks (44-38 ATS 2015-’16)
In this same article a year ago, I picked the Knicks to be undervalued some and they indeed were. At one time they looked like one of the better ATS values of any team, but I’m afraid they are going to fall right back into being overvalued after acquiring Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah. The Knicks are by no means going to be bad next season, and I think they have a chance to finish as high as third in the East. However, they were really overvalued in the two years prior to 2015-’16.

For instance, even though they were six games above .500 ATS last season, since 2013 the Knicks are 115-128-3 ATS. This year after their busy offseason, the Knicks have future odds as high as +2800 and as low as +5000. That is one of the biggest discrepancies of any team’s future odds this offseason. With that much in doubt for the Knicks, I think they will trend more towards the +5000 team rather than the +2800 one, which could make them a team to fade in the game-to-game NBA odds

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