Overpriced Kings Worth Fading Versus Mavs

Thursday, March 21, 2019 4:33 AM UTC

Thursday, Mar. 21, 2019 4:33 AM UTC

The Sacramento Kings are big favorites for Thursday’s home game against the Dallas Mavericks – maybe too big to beat the NBA odds.

<p style="text-align:right"><em><strong>Jason’s 2018-19 NBA picks record through Mar. 19: </strong><br />20-17-1 ATS, 0-4 ML (minus-9.35 units), 29-14 Totals</em></p><h2 style="text-align:center">Dallas (28-43 SU, 39-30-2 ATS) at Sacramento (34-36 SU, 41-28-1 ATS)</h2><p style="text-align:center"><strong>Thursday, 10:00 p.m. ET<br />Free NBA Pick: <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/nba-basketball/dallas-mavericks-vs-sacramento-kings-3568994/odds/" target="_blank" title="Game Odds">Mavericks ATS</a><br />Best Line Offered: <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=4423&amp;book=BetOnline" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Top Rated Sportsbook!">BetOnline</a></strong></p><p>[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3568994, "sportsbooksIds":[238,93,1096,999991,999996], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]</p><p>There’s something to be said for teams who don’t suck as bad as people thought they would. Both the Dallas Mavericks and Sacramento Kings are outperforming expectations this year – especially the Kings, who still have a shot of making the playoffs in the Western Conference. But if the math is right, Sacramento is just way too expensive as 8.5-point home favorites for Thursday’s contest.<br /><br />That’s the math according to FiveThirtyEight. They have the Kings projected as 6-point faves, which gives us ample profit margin to put Dallas in our <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/nba/" target="_blank" title="More NBA Picks">NBA picks</a> – in theory. Maybe our loveable hoop nerds missed something with their fancy stats. Let’s dig deep, peel back the layers, and get to know the real story behind this matchup.</p><p> </p><h2><strong>What Happens In Vegas, Goes Online</strong></h2><p>The most notable thing about this game is that Dallas will be playing on zero days of rest. The Mavs were in Portland Wednesday night to take on the Trail Blazers; after a late surge, our heroes earned the matador cover in a 126-118 loss as 10-point road dogs. That quick turnaround and the extra travel would normally make Dallas a good fade target, but it appears the sharps have already scooped up whatever value there is – the Kings opened as 7.5-point faves on the <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/nba-basketball/" target="_blank" title="Live NBA Odds Board">NBA odds board</a>.<br /><br />Not so fast: The early consensus numbers for Thursday’s game show 100-percent support for the Mavericks. How could this be? Well, Sacramento actually opened at –8.5 on the first lines from Las Vegas, then dropped to –7.5 in early action before moving back up. Mystery solved. There’s a similar pattern with the total, which opened in Vegas at 226 points, then shot up to 230 before it hit the online market.</p><p>[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;Maxi Kleber. Goodness. &lt;a href=\"https://t.co/XZmYIToMmF\"&gt;pic.twitter.com/XZmYIToMmF&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;— Roi G. Cabaleiro (@RoiGCabaleiro) &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/RoiGCabaleiro/status/1107832782292746240?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;19 de março de 2019&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;\n&lt;script async src=\"https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;"}[/]</p><h2><strong>Maxi Millions</strong></h2><p>There could be some merit to betting the ‘over’ here. It was the right call in each of Sacramento’s last four games, and each of the last three for Dallas. But the Kings also have the ‘under’ at 20-16 this year when they play at home, and the Mavs – who will be playing tired – have the ‘under’ dead-even at 17-17-1 on the road. M’eh.</p><p>We should also point out that Dallas may or may not have PF Maxi Kleber (minus-0.7 OBPM, plus-2.3 DBPM) ready for Thursday’s game. Kleber sat out Wednesday with a sprained left wrist – that’s his non-shooting hand, so who knows. We’d feel even more confident about the Mavericks if Kleber plays, given that he’s their best defender now that DeAndre Jordan is a New York Knick. The usual caveats apply: Pay attention to the shoot-around, bet accordingly, and may the sphere be with you.</p>
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