Odds Overvalue San Antonio as Large Favorites: Back Magic +14 vs. Spurs with NBA Picks Wednesday Night

Joe Gavazzi

Wednesday, February 4, 2015 4:15 PM UTC

Wednesday, Feb. 4, 2015 4:15 PM UTC

A look at the NBA standings finds that that the reeling Orlando Magic will visit an embarrassed and motivated San Antonio Spurs team Wednesdaynight in the home of the Alamo. 

Orlando Magic at San Antonio Spurs (-13) 8:35 ET
A look at the NBA standings finds that that the reeling Orlando Magic will visit an embarrassed and motivated San Antonio Spurs team Wednesday night in the home of the Alamo. It’s an easy selection to knee-jerk to the bounce back effort of the Spurs against an Orlando team that would appear to be ripe for the plucking. Let’s go inside the numbers and the thinking to see why Orlando is my NBA pick

San Antonio currently stands 30-18 SU, locked into 7th place in the Western Conference standings. The defending champs are far more accustomed to being atop the conference standings. Instead, they are 2 ½ games behind Portland and the Clippers for the 4th spot in the playoffs. December was horrendous for the Spurs. Missing from many of the games were lead guard Tony Parker and last year’s playoff MVP, Kawhi Leonard.  It resulted in a record of 8-10 SU in December, as the Spurs allowed a highly uncharacteristic 104 PPG. Despite that poor defensive month, they still allowed just 97.3 PPG for the season (2nd best in the West).  With the turning of the calendar to 2015, the Spurs’ fortunes changed as well. San Antonio went 10-4 SU in January, allowing just 94 PPG.  But, the month ended on a downer when they lost 105-85 on this court to the LA Clippers on January 31st. Though a bounce back would seem in order (San Antonio is 10-6 ATS off a defeat this season), the Spurs may find themselves sandwiched tonight between that high-profile loss to the Clippers and a home game Friday night with Miami, the team they defeated in the NBA Finals last season. A further look at their pointspread log indicates they are just 6-5 ATS as double digit favorite. That fits with the fact that all NBA double digit dogs are 89-73 ATS. 

Enter the Orlando Magic who are on a 9-game losing streak in which they are just 2-7 ATS. At 15-36 SU, they are in 13th place in the East with little, if any, hope of making the playoffs once again this year. They are unique in the fact that they have an inverted home/road dichotomy. The 10 road wins for the Magic are twice as many as they have on their home court.  This is directly tied to the fact that many big favorites overlook Orlando on their schedule.  Such was the case Monday night, when the Magic lost 104-97 as 13 point road dog at OKC or on Monday the 26th of January, when we used the Magic (+12) as a pointspread winner in their 103-94 loss at Memphis. The bottom line is that Orlando is 18-6 ATS as road dog of 4 or more points, including 9-3 ATS when taking 10 or more points.    

With the Spurs sandwiched between higher profile dates with the Clippers and Miami and paying little attention to an Orlando team they have dominated in the past, it will be no surprise if the Magic slip in under this bloated number on our NBA odds tonight.

NBA Pick: Take Orlando +14 at 5Dimes

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