Odds Movement & Top Betting Trends Weekend Edition

Doug Upstone

Friday, February 27, 2015 8:08 PM GMT

We send February out the door and welcome in March Madness beginning Sunday. This weekend, those devising sports picks in the various sports will have their hands full trying to beat the sportsbooks. 

For starters, we will cover the line moves for today and look ahead to the big basketball games of the weekend which will capture the attention of those studying the betting odds. Like we say every day, understanding line moves can build your bankroll. (402-352 L140D)

 

New York Knicks vs. Detroit Pistons 7:35 ET MSG, FS-D
With the Knicks averaging 89.8 points a game during their eight-game losing, those placing NBA picks had no problem lowering the total from 196.5 to 194. New York has few places to turn to stretch the nylon and Detroit has been improved on defense allowing only 92.8 PPG in their last five outings. The only reason concern is the Pistons are 16-5 OVER versus teams being outscored  by six or more points a game the last two seasons. 

NBA Pick – Lean Under

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Milwaukee Bucks vs. L.A. Lakers 10:35 ET  FS-WI, TCWSN
The Bucks had not played well since trading away leading scorer Brandon Knight, but they finally got Michael Carter-Williams in uniform and won their last contest, even if was just against Philadelphia. The NBA odds are favoring Milwaukee to continue winning with their new point guard, as they open up a west coast trip in L.A., taking on the Lakers and have been pushed from -4 to -6. Los Angeles by their standards this season is sizzling with two straight wins, something they have not done in 2 ½ months. It might be time to –Fear the Deer- since the Bucks are 21-8 ATS on the road this season, including 5-0 SU and ATS as away favorites. 

NBA Pick – Lean Milwaukee

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Oklahoma City vs. Portland Trailblazers 10:35 ET ESPN
Oklahoma City saw their seven-game win and cover streak come to an end last night in Phoenix, losing 117-113 in OT as five-point favorite. Whether NBA basketball handicappers agree or not, the Thunder has grown to larger underdogs than originally intended, up two points to +5. This would make sense if OKC shoots the ball as poorly as they did last evening (38.6 percent) and gave the same kind of defensive non-effort (49.5% shooting for Suns). The Thunder have lost the first two matchups this season, but prior to that they were 9-2 SU and they arrive in Rip City 9-3 and 8-3-1 ATS playing with no rest this campaign. 

NBA Pick – Oklahoma City covers

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Calgary Flames vs. New York Islanders 7:05 ET SN-W, MSG+2
Calgary figures to be in a fight the rest of the season for a playoff position in the West and is on a very important Eastern road trip. The Flames are 1-1 thus far and face the Islanders tonight who are tied for the second-best record in the Eastern Conference. The money is coming primarily on the home team, as the Isles are up 20 cents on the NHL odds money line to -190. Calgary has won seven of the past 11 times they faced the Islanders on the road and they are 16-13 in away games this season. I’m not sure what this next trend explains other than the oddity of the Flames being 1-7 on Friday’s and New York at 7-1 on the same day. 

NHL Pick – Lean New York

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Sportsbook Review Tasty Trends
NBA ATS Trend
New York is 1-12 ATS after allowing 100 points or more in two straight games this season. 

NBA Totals Trend
Philadelphia is 17-4 UNDER after a blowout loss by 15 points or more this season. 

NCAA Basketball ATS Trend
Ohio U. is 1-9 ATS after playing a home game this season. 

NHL Money Line Trend
Dallas is 1-9 revenging a road loss by two goals or more this season. 

 

NCAA Basketball and NBA – Big Weekend Matchups

 

Northern Iowa vs. Wichita State 2:00 ET  ESPN
Arguably the best the game of Saturday in college basketball and filled with drama. Here are two Top 12 teams, playing for first place in the always underappreciated Missouri Valley Conference. Wichita State looks to win the title again and avenge a significant beatdown by the Panthers at their place 70-54. Wichita State guards have to play great and the frontcourt has to hold their own against UNI. Let’s make the home team a 4 or 5-point favorite and presume they meet in the Arch Madness finals next Sunday. 

NCAA Basketball Pick – Lean Wichita State

 

Arkansas vs. Kentuky 4:00 ET  ESPN
This is the first of two regular season tests Kentucky has remaining to stay unbeaten and possibly the toughest. The NCAA basketball odds makers will likely have the top-ranked Wildcats as 14 to 16 point home favorites, but these are not your daddy’s Razorbacks. The Hogs are 6-4 and 5-5 ATS on the road this season and their only loss in their past 11 games was at Florida by one-point. Offensively and defensively, Arkansas is set up to create chaos, which could knock Kentucky off its game for periods of time. The Razorbacks have to control tempo and push the ball to take open 3’s and hope they fall.


NCAA Basketball Pick – Lean Arkansas

 

Arizona vs. Utah 9:00 ET  ESPN
First place will be on the line for this monster Pac-12 tilt. Utah trails Arizona by a game with the margin being their previous matchup in Tucson, a 69-51 drubbing administered by the Wildcats. The Utes have lost 11 in a row to Arizona (5-6 ATS), which included two non-regular season hookups, making this truly a benchmark contest for Utah who is 16-0 and 11-4 ATS in Salt Lake City. Look for Utah to be a 1-3 point home favorite and add them to your college basketball picks


NCAA Basketball Pick – Lean Utah

 

BYU vs. Gonzaga 10:00 ET  ESPN2
Does Gonzaga deserve a No.1 seed? Let’s frame the question this way, if say Connecticut or Memphis was 29-1 coming out of the AAC and their only loss was at Arizona in OT, would their even be a discussion about a top seed for them? Exactly, and if the Zags win this game and finish the West Coast tournament as champions and nobody is injured, they have to be a top seed. However, BYU is not a pushover and has won and covered five straight and is a sharp 8-3 SU and ATS on the road this season. The Bulldogs are expected to be 11-13 point favorites in a game that will be more entertaining the Texas and Kansas earlier. 

NCAA Basketball Pick – Lean BYU

 

Cleaveland Cavaliers vs. Houston Rockets 3:30 ET ABC (Sunday)
Off their very impressive victory over Golden State, on Sunday afternoon, Cleveland will be in Houston to taken on another power out of the Western Conference. The Cavaliers are quickly establishing themselves and Atlanta and the two best club out of the East, while the Rockets has succeeded with great depth, with Dwight Howard missing a lot time out of the lineup. Maybe not quite as fascinating a matchup as this past Thursday, but a very good televised tilt with stars a plenty. Presently this looks like a Pick to Houston possibly up to -2.

NHL Pick – Lean Cleveland