Odds Movement & Top Betting Trends for Wednesday

Doug Upstone

Wednesday, January 28, 2015 7:05 PM UTC

Wednesday, Jan. 28, 2015 7:05 PM UTC

It’s the last Hump Day of January and we have the typical full card, especially in basketball today. There is a plethora of sports picks choices and we have zeroed in on five contests.


Portland vs. Cleveland  7:05 ET  KGW, FS-OH
Like flipping the light switch, Cleveland has become what most expected them to be, having won seven in a row (6-1 ATS). In particular the offense is clicking, averaging 112.7 points, which in turn has improved the Cavaliers intensity on the defensive end. Portland had lost five of six, but thanks to a gutty performance by LaMarcus Aldridge playing with a thumb that needs surgery, the Trail Blazers beat Washington last Saturday and return to action after being snowed out in Brooklyn. With the Cavs offense clicking and the Blazers allowing 102 PPG on the road, the NBA odds on the total have risen from 204 to 206.5. This works if you follow Portland who is 9-1 OVER as a road underdog this season. 

NBA Pick:  Lean Over

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Brooklyn vs. Atlanta  8:05 ET  ESPN
NBA basketball handicappers looking ahead realize Atlanta will be favored to continue their staggering win streak until they face Golden State on Feb.6th. The Hawks surrender the fewest points in the NBA at 96.2 and are fourth in field goal percentage defense. With Brooklyn averaging only 95 PPG and a malnourished 87.5 PPG in their past four contests, the total has plunged from 195 to 192.5. Off their 108-73 thrashing at Utah, the Nets are 7-0 UNDER away after a loss by 10 points or more this season. Despite the numbers, this seems like an overreaction by those placing NBA picks.

NBA Pick: Lean Over

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SMU vs. South Florida 7:00 ET  ESPNU
The numbers do not indicate SMU should be a falling road favorite, down two digits to -11 at South Florida. The Mustangs are 7-1 and 6-2 ATS in AAC action, shooting over 50 percent (50.7) and winning by 14.3 PPG. The Bulls have dropped five in a row and are 1-6 SU and ATS in conference play, losing  by 14.3 PPG. SMU won the earlier matchup 83-49 as 16.5-point home favorites on the NCAA basketball odds, thus USF should have motivation, but even considering the spread, can the Bulls make up 24 points to beat the odds maker? SMU covers if they so choose.

NCAA Basketball Pick: Lean SMU



Duke vs. Notre Dame  7:30 ET  ESPN2
After the emotional win against St. John’s at The Garden, Duke still has to face two Top 8 teams this week on the road, starting in South Bend. The wagering public is riding one of the most public teams in the Blue Devils, boosting them from a Pick to -1.5. The game will mark the first time in nearly 12 years that two top 10 teams have played at Purcell Pavilion. Expect the outcome to come down who makes the most three-ball’s since it is a strength of both teams and if Notre Dame’s C Zack Auguste can score and stay out of foul trouble against scintillating freshman Jahlil Okafor.

NCAA Basketball Pick: Slight lean Notre Dame           

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Toronto vs. New Jersey  7:35 ET SN, MSG+
Right off the top, I do not understand why the Toronto the betting odds are moving in their favor from +130 to +115. The Maple Leafs have lost six straight and are 1-9 in 2015. New Jersey is no juggernaut I understand it, but they are 4-3 since Jan. 3rd and have registered points in five of seven outings. The Devils won in Toronto 5-3 almost seven weeks ago and the Leafs are only 4-12 revenging a loss by two or more goals this season.

NHL Pick:  New Jersey wins

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Sportsbook Review Tasty Trends

Atlanta is 18-4 ATS after scoring 105 points or more this season. 

NBA Totals Trend
Houston is 11-0 UNDER at home versus teams - allowing 99 or more points game this season. 

NCAA Basketball ATS Trend
Wichita State is 10-0 ATS off a blowout win by 20 points or more over a conference rival the last two seasons. 

NHL Money Line Trend
Pittsburgh is 6-15 after a home game where both teams scored three or more goals the last two seasons. 


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