Odds Movement & Top Betting Trends for Thursday

Doug Upstone

Thursday, January 8, 2015 9:05 PM GMT

Welcome to a new feature at SBR. Five days a week we will delve into the biggest line moves of the day and very profitable trends you should consider when making your sports picks.

In each game capsule, we will provide what the public is betting on and how much the line moved, possible reasons as to why and offer our opinion on what the outcome could be. We welcome your feedback and comments and hope you enjoy. Let’s get started!

 

NBA – (501) Charlotte vs. (502) Toronto  7:35 ET  SPSO, SNN
With Charlotte 25th in points scored at 95.1 points a game, NBA bettors are lowering the total from 201 to 199 at Toronto. In the Hornets/Bobcats last 17 trips across the northern border, 11 of the outcomes have been below the sportsbooks number. Nonetheless, Charlotte has won and covered three straight and been more fluid on offense and road teams like the Hornets when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points, after a win by six points or less (98-94 over New Orleans last night), against opponent who played consecutive games where both teamsscored 100 points or more, are 23-3 OVER since 2010. NBA picks: – Play Over

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NBA – (505) Miami vs. (506) Portland  10:35 ET  TNT
The Heat embarks on a five-game Western swing and at 15-20; this is the most important part of their season to date. If Miami were to go 1-4 or worse, they may even start to have a difficult time even making the playoffs in the crummy Eastern Conference. Those studying the NBA odds are at least thinking the Heat will give a strong effort in the opener of the trip and lowered them from +10 to +8.5. However, there is one major concern, off the Heat’s 88-84 victory over Brooklyn as two-point home underdogs; Miami is 0-7 ATS after an outright upset this season. SBR Prediction – Lean Miami

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NCAA Basketball – (513) George Mason vs. (514) Richmond 7:00 ET  NBCSN
Not sure I completely understand why college hoops bettors are adjusting Richmond’s NCAA basketball odds from -5 to -7. The Spiders have lost three in a row and are a creepy 1-10 ATS this season. While no fan of overrated head coach Paul Hewitt (IMO), George Mason is on a 4-1 SU move and is perfect 5-0 ATS in lined recent lined games. The Patriots are 11-3 ATS as road pooch or Pick since last season. SBR Prediction – George Mason covers

 

NCAA Basketball– (555) San Francisco vs. (556) Gonzaga  9:00 ET  ROOT-NW
The surging sixth-ranked Bulldogs look for a 26th consecutive home victory over San Francisco, yet not everybody making NCAA basketball picks are willing to say it will be as easy as the oddsmakers first suggested. The Zags were sent out at -22.5 and have dipped two points. Two
reasons for the number tumbling, first, the Dons are 17-5 ATS in road games against WCC opponents the last three seasons. Also, Gonzaga is notorious for not covering spreads over 20 points the last several years (1-2 ATS this season for example), typically winning in the 15-19-range. SBR Prediction – Lean San Francisco

 

NHL – (55) Buffalo vs. (56) Carolina  7:05 ET  MSG-B, FSSO
I’ve been a NHL hockey handicapper for some time and I cannot recall a team being hit as hard as Buffalo has in – Play Against- situations as the Sabres have all year. Buffalo is 14-27 SU yet is down only one unit on the season with their underdog covers on the money line. The Sabres are 1-9 SU of late and been outscored 45-16 and Carolina has blown up like my holiday waist line from -180 to -210. I am not saying to back Buffalo, but in case they win, you heard it here the Sabres are 4-0 this season after two or more away setbacks. NHL pick: Lean Carolina

SBR's Tasty Trends

NBA ATS Trend
New York is 4-14 ATS in home games this season. 

NCAA Basketball ATS Trend
UCLA is 0-9 ATS playing against a team with a winning record this season. 

NHL Money Line Trend
New Jersey is 5-20 after allowing two goals or less in two straight games the last two seasons.