Wednesday Fast Break: Pistons, Magic Have ATS Value vs. Injured Foes

Wednesday, October 17, 2018 1:59 PM UTC

Wednesday, Oct. 17, 2018 1:59 PM UTC

Welcome back to another big NBA regular season! It’s the first huge slate of the season and there are still several bits of news and injuries you need to be aware of before placing your bets!

Even though it’s early in the season, there are a few teams that are really banged up. Combine that with this being the first game of the season for every team tonight, there could be some huge value opening up to start the season.

Brooklyn And Miami Banged Up

It’s the beginning of the season, but there are several teams coming into their opening night game at less than 100 percent. The two biggest instances of this are the Nets and Heat. Brooklyn is heading into Detroit without DeMarre Carroll and Allen Crabbe. They could also be without Rondae Hollis-Jefferson. If all three of those guys are out, the Pistons will roll Brooklyn at home. Between Andre Drummond and Blake Griffin, the Pistons will just beat up on Brooklyn down low to win this one.

For Miami, their situation is even worse. They will be without Dion Waiters and James Johnson for the time being, and Justise Winslow and Wayne Ellington are both doubtful Wednesday. Combined with Goran Dragic coming in at potentially less than 100 percent, and as home underdogs, the Magic might be a great play ATS and SU against this Heat team missing two starters and two good role players. Add in the Jimmy Butler trade drama, and fading the Heat looks more and more inviting.

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The Miami HEAT and Minnesota Timberwolves had a deal in place for Jimmy Butler until Tom Thibodeau asked for more picks at the last minute.

Pat Riley reportedly yelled “MOTHERF***ER” and hung up, per @SedanoESPN

(h/t @opinionsondanba )

— NBA Central (@TheNBACentral) October 11, 2018
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No Defense In New York

Speaking of injuries, the Atlanta Hawks have some injury concerns to their frontcourt for Wednesday, which could lead to a ton of points being scored for the Knicks. John Collins and Dewayne Dedmon are both out Wednesday, which leaves a huge hole defensively for this team. Last year the Hawks gave up more than 110 points per 100 possessions, all while playing at a pace that ranked inside the top 10 in the league.

Combine that with the fact that the Hawks got better at times with both those guys off the court last season, and the total for this one is looking like a strong "over" play. The Knicks play no defense either, so this could be a preseason game-extended in the Big Apple.

New-Look Suns Looking To Run

With Devin Booker set to play on Wednesday, the Suns’ offense is looking mighty intriguing coming into 2018-19. They have the best rookie in the league Deandre Ayton, and combined with the signing of Trevor Ariza, and the potential for another young guy to step up, the Suns could be in line to put some points on the board.

Their opponent on Wednesday might be good for the same thing. Even with the Mavs being without Harrison Barnes and Dirk Nowitzki on Wednesday, that could add to the pace and potential offense.

With DeAndre Jordan at center, the Mavs will probably try and run more than they have in the past. Add in the exciting young backcourt of Luka Doncic and Dennis Smith Jr, and you have a team that might actually prefer to play fast. Right now, the books are underestimating how many points might be scored in this one.

Wednesday Betting Trends
  • The "over" is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between the Heat and Magic.
  • The Grizzlies are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 trips to Indianapolis.
  • The Bucks are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games against the Hornets.
  • The "over" is 4-1 in the last 5 games between the Knicks and Hawks.
  • The "under" is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between the Pelicans and Rockets in Houston.
  • The Wolves are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games against the Spurs.
  • The "over" is 7-2 in the last 9 games between the Mavericks and Suns in Phoenix.
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