Obscene Total Just Too High To Bet 'Over' In Warriors-Rockets

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Kevin Stott

Friday, January 20, 2017 3:06 PM GMT

Friday, Jan. 20, 2017 3:06 PM GMT

The Warriors score points, but they’re also playing lights-out defense as the defending Western Conference champions take their act to Houston on Friday to face James Harden and the Rockets. With the total higher than Keith Richards in the 1960s, well, just guess which way we are leaning. 

Golden State Warriors At Houston Rockets (ESPN, 8 p.m)

The State Warriors (36-6 SU, 18-23-1 ATS) take their 5-game winning streak to the Toyota Center in Houston to face James Harden and the Rockets (33-12 SU, 28-17 ATS). NBA odds have the Warriors solid 4½- (BookMaker) to 5-point favorites (5Dimes) in this matchup with the total in the extreme 236 (5Dimes) to 237-point (BetDSI) range. The Moneyline odds see Golden State at -195 and Houston a +175 underdog (Pinnacle).

 Golden State Warriors Thumbnail Sketch, Trends

The Warriors (-128 to win NBA Championship, BetOnline) are 7-3 ATS L10 in this series but Houston won and covered the only meeting this season, winning 132-125 in OT at Oracle on Dec. 1 (GSW -11, 212½). Like last season, Golden State (-300 to win Western Conference, YouWager) leads the NBA in scoring (117.8 ppg), but even with gunners Kevin Durant, Steph Curry and Klay Thompson, Coach Steve Kerr has this team playing great defense (101 Points per Opponents' Possession, #1 NBA) with Draymond Green leading the defensive charge and averaging 7.7 apg along the way as a do-it-all power forward who dishes, bangs the boards and pops threes.

The Warriors are 0-5 ATS L5 vs. NBA Southwest, 1-5 ATS L6 vs. Western Conference and 1-7 ATS L8 Road. The 'Under' is 10-1 L11 Warriors Roadies, 10-3 L13 vs. Western Conference and 20-8 L28 on 1 Day Rest, so perhaps the reality GSW scores so much and added Durant changed bettors' and oddsmakers perceptions while this team is concentrating on defense.

 Houston Rockets Thumbnail Sketch, Trends

The Rockets (40/1 to win NBA Championship, BetOnline) are thriving with James Harden running point and with cosmic anchor Dwight Howard gone. But Houston (25/1 to win NBA Championship, 5Dimes) still has obstacles in these Warriors (9-1 SU L10) and the 2nd-place Spurs (33-9). The Rockets are a sparkling 7-0 ATS L7 vs. NBA Pacific, 12-3 ATS L15 Fridays and 17-7 ATS L24 on 1 Day Rest.

The 'Over' is 4-0 L4 Rockets games overall, 25-11 L36 Following SU Loss and 5-0 L5 vs. Western Conference but in its last game Wednesday, they mounted the Bucks in Houston, 111-96 (HOU -6½, 226) as the hosts played their third 'Under' in L4 games.

 

Series 'Under' Trend Impossible To Ignore

The Warriors are 4-2 ATS L6 meetings in this series in H-town and and GSW is 7-3 ATS L10 overall despite not covering (or winning) that aforementioned December meeting in Oakland. The 'Under' is 12-5 in the L17 in this series in Houston, and with such a high number and the public likely to bet the 'Over' on a perceived high-scoring shootout, maybe letting the total get bet up to 238½ to 240 before backing the 'Under' in this particular spot is the Rx.

Predicted Final Score: Warriors 118, Rockets 113NBA Free Pick: 'Under' 237Best Line Offered: BetDSI

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