O/U NBA Picks: Two Low Scoring Predictions Worth Betting On XMAS Day

Ross Benjamin

Friday, December 25, 2015 3:49 PM GMT

Our NBA odds analyst shares his two top totals picks for Christmas Day. Go inside to find out what those picks are and why he’s chosen them.

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Golden State Warriors 5:05 PM ET

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NBA Pick: Under 201
Best Line Offered: at TheGreek

Cleveland has gone 4-1 under the total in its last five, and they held opponents to an average of 84.6 points per game during that stretch. According to current NBA betting odds, the posted total is 210.5 in this contest. Cleveland is 44-25 (63.8%) under the total during the past two seasons when the number is 200.0 or more.

Golden State is unquestionably the most explosive team offensively in the NBA. What goes unnoticed the most in regards to its success, is their defensive efforts, and especially so when playing at home. The Warriors are allowing just 96.3 points per game on their home floor, and holding opponents to a paltry 41.8% shooting from the field.

These teams met eight times last season, and that includes six games in the 2015 NBA Finals. Those contests went 6-1-1 under the total. When considering that Golden State has scored 100 points or more in 27 of 28 games this season, the total in this contest is fairly low, and sportsbooks are enticing us to wager on going over the total. I’m not falling for their trap, and one of my Friday NBA picks will be indicative of that exact thought process.

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San Antonio Spurs vs. Houston Rockets 8:05 PM ET

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NBA Pick: Under 201
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

 

San Antonio continues to play stifling defense, and that’s certainly been a key component to a terrific 25-5 start to the season. They’re allowing just 88.8 points per game, and that’s unequivocally the best in the NBA. The Spurs have also limited their opponents to only 19 free throw attempts per contest, and that’s extremely low by NBA standards. San Antonio is 10-4 under the total in away games.

Houston has gone under the total in each of their previous five games. Those contests went under the number by a combined 60.5 points. One of Houston’s more disappointing statistics this season is their poor 33.5% conversion rate on three-point shot attempts. That facet of their game has suffered substantially from what we witnessed a season ago.