O/U NBA Picks: Two High Scoring Predictions For Saturday

Ross Benjamin

Saturday, January 30, 2016 4:20 PM UTC

Saturday, Jan. 30, 2016 4:20 PM UTC

Our NBA analyst shares his two top totals on Saturday’s card. Go inside to find out what those NBA picks are, and why he’s opted to bet on them.

Detroit Pistons vs. Toronto Raptors 6:35 PM ET
Detroit has gone 8-2 over the total in their last ten games. The Pistons have allowed an average of 102.0 points per game this season.

Toronto has scored 101 points or more in each of their previous eight games. During its last five contests, Toronto is averaging 107.4 points per game, shooting 47.4% from the floor, and has converted on an excellent 44.0% of their three point attempts. The Raptors have also gone 14-5 over the total this season when facing an opponent with a winning record, and that’s exactly what they’ll be doing on Saturday. Toronto enters today riding a ten game win streak with the last four of those coming by 10 points or more. They’re a better than average defensive team which allows 96.5 points per game.

Any home team (Toronto) with a total of 200.0 to 209.5, coming off two straight wins by 10 points or more, and they allow 92.0 to 98.0 points per contest, versus an opponent which allows 98.0 to 102.0 points per game, resulted in those games going 31-6 (83.8%) over the total since 1996. The average total in those 37 contests was 204.1, and there were a combined average of 215.9 points scored per game.

I liked this game to be a high scoring affair to start with. Coupling my professional intuition with the aforementioned handicapping algorithm further reinforced my thought process. One of my NBA picks on Saturday will emulate the prior two sentences.

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NBA Pick: Over 203.5 
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes


Denver Nuggets vs. Indiana Pacers 7:05 PM ET
Denver has scored 101 points or more and allowed 101 or more in each of their previous seven games. As a matter of fact, Denver has gone over the total in nine straight games. In their only meeting of the season against Indiana which came only 13 days ago, Denver was a 129-126 winner at home. Needless to say, that contest easily went over the total of 200.5.

One of the key factors I isolated when handicapping this contest was free throw attempts. Denver has averaged 31 free throws attempts and allowed 26 per outing during its last five games. Indiana has averaged 28 free throw attempts and allowed 27 per contest in their previous five games. I look for those numbers to stay consistent for today’s matchup, and that’s a plethora of potential points being scored with the clock stopped.

Current NBA odds provide me with the best number for this specific wager.

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NBA Pick: Over 208.5 
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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