O/U NBA Picks: Three Dagger Plays to Beat the Bookie

Ross Benjamin

Sunday, December 27, 2015 4:23 PM GMT

Sunday, Dec. 27, 2015 4:23 PM GMT

In a short slate for the night, we wanted our NBA odds analyst to share his three top totals NBA picks on Sunday’s card. Go inside to find out what those plays are and why he’s chosen them.

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Memphis Grizzlies 6:05 PM ET
Memphis has gone 5-1 under the total in their last six games. There was only a combined average of 187.2 points scored per contest. The Grizzlies have limited opponents to a paltry 74 field goal attempts per game in its last five outings. That number is extremely low by NBA standards.

The Lakers have gone 4-1 under the total during their last five games. During that stretch, they averaged an anemic 89.0 points per game, and shot a miserable 40.5% from the floor.

Current NBA odds at The Greek indicate the total in this contest is 196.5. The Lakers field goal percentage defense is 46.2% this season, and their rebound per game differential is -5. Any road team (Lakers) with a total of 190.0 to 199.5 that has a defensive field goal percentage of 46.0% or greater, and their rebound per game differential is -3 or worse, resulted in those games going 69-31 (69%) under the total during the past five seasons.

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Free NBA Pick: Under 196.5
Best Line Offered:

 

Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder 7:05 PM ET
Denver has gone 3-0 under the total in their last three away games, and there was a combined average of just 190.7 points scored per contest.

Oklahoma City has gone 4-0 under the total in its previous four, 8-1 in the last nine, and 14-2 during their previous sixteen games. In addition, they’ve gone under the number in each of their last seven home games. The Thunder has held opponents to less than 100 points in thirteen of its previous sixteen games.

Relative to the current (10:40 AM ET) total, I like this game to be a low scoring affair for one of my Sunday NBA picks.

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Free NBA Pick: Under 206.5
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

 

Portland Trailblazers vs. Sacramento Kings 9:05 PM ET
Sacramento is coming off a 108-106 win as a 7.0 point underdog at Indiana. Portland was a 105-76 winner as a 7.5 point home underdog last night against Cleveland.

Any team (Portland) with a total of 200.0 or greater, coming off a straight up underdog win, versus an opponent (Sacramento) coming off a road underdog straight up win, resulted in those games going 40-13 (75.5%) under the total during the past five seasons. The average total in those 53 contests was 205.7, and there was a combined average of 198.9 points scored per game. Take that into account for your NBA picks.

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2882917, "sportsbooksIds":[169,1096,93,19,92,238], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]
Free NBA Pick: Under 208.5
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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