O/U NBA Picks of the Day: A Pair That Would Beat Any “3 of a Kind”

Ross Benjamin

Sunday, December 20, 2015 3:02 PM UTC

Sunday, Dec. 20, 2015 3:02 PM UTC

Our NBA odds analyst shares his two top totals picks on Sunday’s card. Go inside to find out what those picks are and why he’s chosen to use them.

Sacramento Kings vs. Toronto Raptors 6:05 PM ET
Sacramento has seen each of their last three games stay under the total, and there was a combined average of 198.0 points scored per contest.

Toronto is coming off a 108-94 win at Miami as a 4.5 points underdog, and it improved their record to 17-11. The Raptors are 13-2 under the total (187.0 PPG) during the past two seasons following a straight up underdog win. They’ve also gone 13-3 under the total (191.3 PPG) this season following an ATS win. Toronto has allowed an average of only 86.5 points per game in their last four contests at the Air Canada Centre.

According to current (9:50 AM ET) NBA betting odds at Pinnacle, the posted total in this contest is 206.5. Any team (Toronto) with a total of 200.0 to 209.5, coming off a road underdog straight up win by 10 points or more, and has a winning record, resulted in those games going 33-11 (75%) under the total during the past five seasons.

NBA Pick: Kings & Raptors UNDER the Total
Best Line Offered: 207 (-105) at Heritage

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New Orleans Pelicans vs. Denver Nuggets 8:05 PM ET
New Orleans has gone 4-1 under the total during its previous five games. The only exception in that sequence came in a contest versus the high scoring Golden State Warriors. The Pelicans are a very noteworthy 13-2 under the total on the road this season, and that includes a perfect 7-0 during its previous seven away games.

Milwaukee has scored 95 points or less in ten of their last thirteen games. During that stretch, they faced the fast paced Golden State Warriors twice, and exceeded that 95 point barrier on both occasions. The last I checked, Denver isn’t anywhere near the caliber of team that the Warriors are, nor are they capable of playing at that kind of frenetic pace with any type of offensive efficiency. The Bucks are averaging just 92.0 points per game on the road this season. They’re also 17-7 under the total (193.8 PPG) during the past two seasons when the posted total is 200.0 to 209.5 like it will be on Sunday.

Relative to the current total, I like this game to be a low scoring affair. One of my Sunday NBA picks will be indicative of that prediction.

NBA Pick: Pelicans & Nuggets UNDER the Total
Best Line Offered: 204.5 (-105) at 5Dimes

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