O/U NBA Picks: Saturday's Winning Total Selections

Ross Benjamin

Saturday, December 5, 2015 3:35 PM UTC

Saturday, Dec. 5, 2015 3:35 PM UTC

Our NBA odds consultant shares his two top totals selections on Saturday’s card. Go inside to find out what those picks are and why he’s opted for them.

Boston Celtics vs. San Antonio Spurs 8:35 PM ET
San Antonio is #1 in NBA scoring defense allowing only 88.5 points per game. They’re even better defensively at home, holding opponents to a paltry 83.7 points per contest. Teams are averaging just 18 free throw attempts per game, and are shooting a terrible 41.6% from the field when facing the Spurs this season. San Antonio is 9-3 under the total during its previous twelve games. They’ve held Memphis to 36 points and Milwaukee to 38 in the first half of its last two games.

Boston has seen four of their past five games stay under the total. The Celtics allowed just an average of 92.0 points per game in those contests. They’re coming off a 114-97 win at Portland in its previous game.

Any home team (Spurs) with a total of 180.0 to 189.5, coming off two straight games in which they allowed 41 points or less in the first half, versus an opponent coming off a game that there were a combined 205 points or more scored, resulted in those games going 39-10 (79.6%) under the total since 1996. The average total in those contests was 186.1, and there were a combined average of 179.8 points scored per game. Those 49 games went under the total by 7.0 points or more 54.9% of the time.

According to NBA odds, they provide me with a best combination of number and price for this specific wager.

NBA Pick: Under 190 at TheGreek

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Indiana Pacers vs. Utah Jazz 9:05 PM ET
Indiana has scored 103 points or more in each of their previous seven games, and went over the total in five of those contests. The Pacers have been very profitable when wagering on over the total in their road games since last season. They’ve been even more so when the parameter of the total falls in this range. Indiana has gone 16-4 (80%) over the total since the start of last season when there’s a total of 190.0 to 199.5.

The Pacers are coming off a 123-111 loss at Portland in their previous game. Despite that defeat, Indiana has a +5.6 point per game differential this season. Utah enters Saturday’s game with a point per game differential of +1.4. Any team (Indiana) with a total of 190.0 to 199.5, possessing a +3.0 to +7.0 point per game differential, versus an opponent with a point per game differential of +3.0 to -3.0, resulted in those games going 29-9 (76.3%) over the total during the past five seasons. Those 38 contests went over the total by 7.0 points or more 55.3% of the time.

I like this game to be a high scoring affair relative to this current total. One of my NBA picks on Saturday will be indicative of that prediction.

NBA Pick: Over 194.5 at Bookmaker

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