O/U NBA Picks: Saturday's Top Value Plays on High-Scoring Games

Ross Benjamin

Saturday, January 9, 2016 7:44 PM UTC

Saturday, Jan. 9, 2016 7:44 PM UTC

Our NBA handicapping professional shares his two top totals picks on Saturday’s card. Go inside to find out what those NBA picks are, and why he’s opted to wager on them.

Chicago Bulls vs. Atlanta Hawks 5:05 PM ET
Both of these teams have shown a liking to play at a quick offensive pace in recent games. Chicago has averaged 87.6 field goal attempts per game during its last eleven contests, and Atlanta 90.5 per outing over their previous four.

Chicago has scored 102 points or more in each of their last nine games. The Bulls are 8-3 over the total in its last eleven overall, and 4-1 surpassing the number during their previous five road games.

Atlanta has gone 10-1 over the total in its last eleven contests, and that includes 4-0 (219.0 PPG) during its previous four. They’ve also exceeded the number in each of their past five home games, and there was a combined average of 213.2 points scored per contest.

Current (1:25 PM ET) NBA odds at Heritage provide me with a best combination of number and price for this specific wager.

NBA Picks: Play on over the total of 207 (-105)

Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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Washington Wizards vs. Orlando Magic 7:05 PM ET
The total in this contest falls into a superb NBA handicapping algorithm that’s too difficult to ignore, and fully supports a contrarian approach. A sports handicapping algorithm can be defined as a set of exact situations which results in the most probable outcomes.

Washington has gone 5-1 under the total in their previous five games. However, we can’t lose sight of the fact that they’re allowing 104.1 points per game this season.  Orlando is 6-1 under the total in its last seven games, and they’re coming off an 83-77 win at Brooklyn last night. The Magic averages a mediocre 98.9 points scored per contest.

Any home team (Orlando) with a total of 190.0 to 199.5, coming off a game in which there was a combined 175 points or less being scored, and they average 98 to 102 points scored per contest, versus an opponent that allows 103 points or more per outing, resulted in those games going 23-6 (79.3%) over the total since 1996. The numbers don’t lie, and one of my NBA picks on Saturday accentuates my belief.

NBA Picks: Play on over the total of 199.5 (-105)

Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes 

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