O/U NBA Picks: A Pair Of Hidden Total Plays On Today’s Card

Ross Benjamin

Thursday, January 28, 2016 7:34 PM UTC

Thursday, Jan. 28, 2016 7:34 PM UTC

Our NBA handicapping professional shares his two top totals on Thursday’s slate. Go inside to find out what those NBA picks are, and why he’s chosen to wager on them.

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Memphis Grizzlies 8:05 PM ET
Milwaukee has scored 98 points or more in seven of its last eight games, and went over the total on six of those occasions. During its previous five contests, the Bucks have shot a stellar 50.0%, and converted on an excellent 83.2% of its free throws. Milwaukee is allowing a lofty 104.3 points per game on the road this season, and allowed their opponents to make 38.2% of their three point attempts.

Memphis has seen each of their previous eight games all go over the total. They’ve scored 101 points or more in seven of their last eight games. The Grizzlies have also allowed 101 or more in each of its previous three contests. Current NBA odds display a total of 194.5 for this contest. Memphis has gone 11-2 over the total at home this season when the total is 190.0 to 199.5. The Grizzlies are averaging 27 free throw attempts per game on its home floor, and are cashing in on 81.5% of those opportunities.

The last three Memphis games have seen both teams score 100 points or more. The previous two Milwaukee contests have produced a combined 207 points or more on each occasion. This sets up a very profitable handicapping algorithm which has more than passed the test of time.

Any team (Memphis) with a total of 190.0 to 199.5, coming off three straight games in which both teams scored 100 points or more, versus an opponent coming off two consecutive games in which they were a combined 205 points or more being scored, resulted in those contests going 49-19 (72.1%) over the total since 1996. This exact situation has occurred twice this season and both games surpassed the posted number, and is also 9-1 over the total since the 2013-2014 NBA campaign.

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NBA Pick: Over 194
Best Line Offered: at TheGreek


Chicago Bulls vs. LA Lakers 10:35 PM ET
Chicago has gone 12-3 under the total this season when facing a non-conference opponent. Those fifteen contests averaged a combined 193.2 points scored per game. Chicago has seen each of their previous two games go under the total, and it produced just a combined 176.0 points scored per contest. The Bulls have also shot less than 40% from the floor in three of its last six games.

The Lakers are 14-7 (66.7%) under the total (197.1 PPG) at home this season. They’ve scored 98 points or less in eight of their previous nine games, and that includes six straight times at home. The Lakers are averaging a below par 80 field goal attempts per game, and shot just 42.9% from the field during its last five appearances.

I like this game to be a low scoring affair relative to the current total. One of my NBA picks on Thursday will reflect that sentiment.

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NBA Pick: Under 201
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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