O/U NBA Pick for Wizards/Hawks Game 5: Going Against Public Betting

Ross Benjamin

Tuesday, May 12, 2015 6:34 PM UTC

Tuesday, May. 12, 2015 6:34 PM UTC

Our NBA consultant shares his Game 5 NBA pick between Washington & Atlanta on Wednesday. Can the trend of these teams alternating wins in this series continue? 

Pivotal Game 5 between Wizards and Hawks
Atlanta will host Washington in a pivotal Game 5 of their Eastern Conference Semifinal series on Wednesday at 7:35 PM ET. According to the NBA betting odds at Wagerweb, Atlanta is an 8.5 point favorite, and the posted total is 199.5. These Southeast Division rivals have alternated wins in each of the first four games of the series. Three of the four games have gone over the total. Since the start of the 2012-2013 NBA campaign, these teams have gone 7-1 over the total in the games played at Atlanta.


Go against Public Betting
Pertaining to a game of this magnitude, it’s a given that the sports-books will certainly receive a plethora of wagering action. At the time of this writing, the public has overwhelmingly wagered on going over the total. As a matter of fact, according to the betting trends at Bookmaker, 87% of wagers made on the total in this contest have gone on over the number. Despite that pattern, the total has gone from an opener of 200.0 to a current number of 199.5. I’m siding with both BookMaker, and the early sharp money wagered on going under the total.  


Totals Tidbits
Each of the previous two games in this series has gone over the total. Atlanta is 14-5 under the total this season following two consecutive games going over the number. Those nineteen contests averaged a combined 193.9 points scored per game. The Hawks have been pretty stout defensively on their home floor during the 2014-2015 campaign, allowing just 95.0 points per game, and holding opponents to only 43.7% shooting from the field.

The Washington Wizards trailed at the half of Game 4 by the score of 65-55. They’ve allowed 60-points or more just 21 times in the first half of games during the past three seasons. Washington went 15-5 under the total in the following game, and there were a combined average of 188.6 points scored per contest.


NBA Totals Betting System
The scores at the end of the first half in the last two during this series were Washington leading 56-43 in Game 3, and Atlanta leading 65-55 in Game 4. Combining those scores, and the total of 199.5 at the time of this writing, qualifies for an extremely profitable totals system. I’m going to be factoring in this valuable handicapping tool when making my NBA picks for Wednesday.

Any road team (Wizards) with a total of 190.0 to 199.5, that scored 55-points or more during the first half of each of its previous two games, versus an opponent (Hawks) that scored 60-points or more in the first half of their previous contest, resulted in that road team going 24-4 (85.7%) under the total since the beginning of the 1996-1997 NBA season. The average total in those twenty-eight games was 195.7, and the average combined points scored were 188.2. As a matter of fact, 61.3% of those games stayed under the total by 7.0 points or more.

NBA Pick: Play on Washington and Atlanta to go Under the total of 199.5 at Wagerweb.

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